At the council of Elrond, Gandalf mentions that seventeen years prior he became aware that:
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spies of many sorts, even beasts and birds, were gathered around the Shire, and my fear grew. I called for the help of the Dunedain, and their watch was doubled;
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I think that Gandalf read many little signs, and put together many little bits of knowledge (including the rhyme that spoke of "the Halfing forth shall stand") to finally come to the realization that Frodo had the One Ring and was indeed the chosen ringbearer.
After Frodo says that he will take the ring to Mordor, the words of Elrond seem to indicate that no one had really known prior to the councel who would be responsible for the ring.
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"If I understand aright all that I have heard, I think that this task is appointed for you, Frodo; and that if you do not find a way, no one will. This is the hour of the Shire-folk, when they arise from their quiet fields to shake the towers and counsels of the Great. Who of all the Wise could have foreseen it? Or, if they are wise, why should they expect to know it, until the hour has struck?
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