[the phantom]

Well, I believe it is time for me to say something. I held my tongue for a bit because I was interested in seeing who would support the plan and why (or who was against it and why).

I'm not sure if the plan was put forward to help the village, to help the wolves, or to see how people responded in order to expose wolves, but seeing as many have made known their thoughts on the plan, it's my turn to pick it apart.

It's time to talk percentages. Firefoot pretty much already made the point I'm about to make, only she wasn't as specific or long-winded as I am going to be.

Odds are that we will lynch an innocent today and that another innocent will be slain during the night, bringing the villager to werewolf ratio down to 9:3.

If everyone was to have a "dream" tonight, what would happen tomorrow? A non-werewolf would have a 25% chance of correctly naming a werewolf. In other words, if a villager says "I had a dream, and person X is a wolf" it is 75% likely that their choice would be wrong, and the wolves would obviously know if they were wrong and rule that person out as the seer. That means that making a random werewolf accusation would greatly serve the wolves. If all nine villagers said "Person X is a werewolf", then probability says that the wolves would then immediately be able to rule out 6 or 7 of us as the seer, leaving them with only 2 or 3 candidates. This would be suicide for the village.

Has no one else noticed this?

Obviously it would be a better idea for everyone to dream of someone being innocent. That way, there would only be a 25% chance of being wrong and thus only a 25% chance of the wolves being able to rule them out as being the seer. But if everyone made an innocent declaration, it would make the seer stick out if he declared one of the wolves to be guilty. So it seems that most of our fake dreams should declare someone innocent, but in order to protect the seer, several of us need to have fake guilty dreams as well in case the seer correctly identifies the wolf. But is giving them a slight amount of cover worth it considering that the person with the fake guilty dream will probably be wrong and immediately ruled out as being the seer?

If you ask me, this plan is a terrible risk. The percentages say that the wolves would be given an awful lot of information in exchange for a bit of cover for the seer. This is not a wise trade off.

Let us say that six villagers make a declaration of innocence and two make a declaration of guilt and the seer also declares someone to be guilty. Odds are that the other two guilty votes would be wrong and that the wolves would cross them off as being the seer, and that one or two innocent votes would be for wolves and thus remove them from the seer candidate list. That would mean that out of nine people, the wolves would have trimmed the list down to five or six candidates. And then, there is a decent possibility that one of those five or six would get lynched that day (the wolves would obviously be trying for it) and then they would certainly kill another that night, narrowing the field to three or four. And the following day when the "dreams" are declared, it is quite possible that the wolves would be able to narrow it down to two, and possibly even one.

I believe that this seer protection plan would ensure that the seer would not make it out of night four alive, meaning that the village would only have the benefit of two seer dreams.

If I was a werewolf I would love this plan.

However, I'm not trying to accuse Fordim. It's possible he knew this and was just getting reactions, or perhaps he hadn't worked the plan out this far.