[The Saucepan Man]

I would first make clear at the outset that circumstances have meant that I could not until now be present during this lively debate (beer doesn’t make itself you know ).

One point to clear up:

Originally Posted by TGWBS

Another thing that concerns me is Saucy's jesting.

As anyone who knows me could tell you, I take comfort in humour (and beer) in the face of distressing circumstances. And I will readily admit that the names that I have mentioned were put forward on the basis of no evidence. If anything, I was merely seeking to evince a reaction.

But the initial posts posts were really nothing but opening gambits and it is, I think, difficult to draw any conclusions from them whatsoever.

It is with Fordim’s bold idea and, in particular, the reactions to it, that the discussion has become really interesting.

I will first state my thoughts on Fordim’s proposed strategy. I will not go on at great length, for various the pros and cons have been stated already. For reasons that others have already stated, I see the “shortlist” idea as a very good mechanism for hanging a lot of innocent Villagers early on (the odds are more in favour of Villagers, rather than Werewolves, appearing on the random ‘shortlist’, at least at the outset). But, more importantly, I see the “Seer dream” idea as a perfect device for enabling the Werewolves to identify the Seer, or at least dramatically narrow down the list, very early on (see, in particular, the phantom’s last post on this.) Even if, having identified the Seer through this method, the Werewolves did not act upon it and kill the Seer immediately, it would enable them more effectively to neutralise his or her influence during the daytime discussions.

So, having considered it carefully, I am against both aspects of Fordim’s plan. It is, in principle, a good idea to carefully examine who people accuse, defend and vote for, but I would prefer not to do this in the structured manner which, to me, seems to favour the Werewolves more. However, I do welcome his having put his ideas forward for what they tell us about him and about those who have reacted to it.

First, what were Fordim’s motives in putting it forward? There are a number of possibilities:

1) Fordim is innocent and genuinely thinks that his plan, if implemented, will help even the odds and protect the Seer.
2) Fordim sees the shortcomings in his plan but, being a Werewolf, sees it as a way of helping his “side” (in particular by providing valuable information on the Seer’s identity).
3) Fordim sees the shortcomings in his plan but, being innocent, recognises that people’s reactions to it might be telling.
4) Fordim, being a Werewolf, wants to generate confusion and steer any accusations away from him.

Now, as an intelligent master of lore, I cannot believe that Fordim did not see the shortcomings in his plan, particularly as regards the Seer. So I am going to disregard 1). Of the remaining motives, the majority (two out of three) favour him being a Werewolf. But I remain undecided on this one, since it has been proved a jolly good way of getting people to react and, possibly, to provoke the Werewolves into making unguarded comments. However, I remain suspicious.

Which brings us to people’s reactions to the plan:

Firefoot spotted a flaw in the mathematics straight away and then posted convingly against the “Seer plan”.

The phantom was initially very mush in favour of the “Seer protection plan” (supporting it in three posts), but then, after its flaws had already been noted, posted convincingly and at length against it.

The Only Real Estel was against the shortlist from the start, but saw merit in the “Seer plan”.

TGWBS was immediately, and vocally, against the “Seer plan” and has been ever since, although he seems to support the "shortlist" idea on the mathematics.

Holbytlass liked the “Seer idea” but was undecided on the “shortlist”.

Kuru ventured no solid opinion on the plan but recognised its worth in gauging people’s reactions to it.

Evisse recognised the shortcomings of both plans, but thought we should go with it in the absence of anything better.

Shelob was in favour of the “Seer plan” but against the “shortlist”, on the basis of the mathematics.

Mormegil immediately spotted the key flaw in the “Seer plan” and has been against it.

SoN posted shortly simply to support Fordim’s idea with little explanation.

Based solely upon this (which is all we really have to go on at the moment), my suspicions are currently primarily directed towards Holbytlass, Evisse and SoN. They seem to be the most in favour of Fordim’s plans. Since they were in favour of the “Seer plan” (which seems to particularly favour the Werewolves), I am also suspicious of The Only Real Estel and Shelob. I am least suspicious (currently) of Firefoot, TGWBS and mormegil (despite my initial, playful, posts), since they have been against the proposals. One might put the phantom in the same category, but he initially supported the “Seer plan” and then turned against it when others had spotted its flaws. Good cover, perhaps, for someone who is intelligent enough to have spotted its flaws from the outset.

Kuru, as always, ventures no solid opinions. Which makes me suspicious of him too. And that is most certainly not a xenophobic reaction.

I have residual suspicions of those who have not yet commented on the plan, namely Azaelia and Oddwen. But they, like me, may simply not have had a chance to get here yet.

So those are my suspicions, but I shall reserve final judgement for a short while yet.