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Originally Posted by The Only Real Estel
It seems like SpM continued to suspect Fordim for sticking to his plan earlier, but then later decided Fordim was innocent for...uh, sticking to his plan.
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I see your point
Estel. It occurred to me at the time. But those two statements were made at different times, with things being said and done in between.
And, although that sounds like I am being defensive (which I counselled against), there is a more general point to be made. We should not just be looking at specific statements and trying to find contradictions. Not at this stage. Eveyone here has, I think, changed their mind at some point or another (even
Kuru, early on
). Our views have to change to respond to changing circumstances. I am not saying that specific statements are not important, but we should now be using them to form broader theories based on patterns of behaviour. Both Werewolves and innocents will have said and done different things at different times. But we at least know what the Werewolves' objective is, and we should be able to look at the sum total of all has happened so far and identify patterns that are indiciative of Werewolf behaviour. That's what I mean when I talk about putting forward and developing theories.
In this regard, I will make one point that may be trite, but is nevertheless worth bearing in mind. The Werewolves will have been concentrating on getting those innocents who are most likely to be suspected lynched during the day and killing those who are the greatest threat to them at night (for example those who are unlikely to be lynched or who are getting close to the truth). In most cases, they will have been doing so subtly (which is why
Fordim's theory has appeal), but there are probably times when they will have been doing this more overtly, when they felt it safe to do so. We should be able to spot these kinds of patterns by now, so let's try.
As I said, I have not got much time to spend reviewing previous events and devleoping theories right now, but I will be concentrating on doing so later.