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The one thing I would take from your very good list morm is that it does seem to indicate that Shelob is more likely to be innocent than Holby and Oddwen insofar as it is in a wolf's best interest not to vote for an innocent who gets lynched, if that means you will come under suspicion (which, so far in this game, it has). That is, the best way to hide is to vote for the 'runner-up' or some other person who looks like a credible candidate for lynching, but who is never actually lynched.
Which is why I find the voting pattern for Holby and Oddwen so interesting...for each of them, two of the three people they've voted for are still alive: they've both voted for SpM, who is still to many minds the most suspect; as for their other votes, they've spread them around in meaningless vote-casting against Azaeilia (by Holby) or Holby (by Oddwen).
For the record, Azaeilia and Shelob both voted for TP: could one of them be a wolf, spreading her own vote to someone else to avoid too clear a pattern? Or to subtly force a tie or direct the vote the way they wanted it to go....?
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