I think what I want to say about Fordim’s theory is “What is the nature of the evidence?”
For this we have…
A) Holbytlass and Oddwen have only voted the same way once.
B) That Oddwen voted against Holbytlass.
C) That Fordim was to be the fall guy of the first NIGHT’s slaying.
-taken from post #273
D) That Holbytlass and Oddwen have usually voted for people who are still alive.
-taken from post #282
E) We have a better chance of getting a wolf by following Fordim’s plan if we accept his numbers.
-taken from post #289
Now I already questioned (D) by pointing out that there is no way the werewolves could guarantee that they’d always be voting for people who would survive even if they were splitting their votes. There is no particular reason to suspect Oddwen and Holbytlass on this count any more than anyone else.
A) is a tenuous point. Of course, it is not intended to be more than one point in the pattern, but I’ll say now this is hardly compelling.
B) is an argument that could as easily be used against Fordim as it relates to Saucepan Man since Fordim voted against Saucepan Man on DAY ONE.
C) this is probably not in dispute (unless one thinks we were meant to outthink ourselves), but this could mean any number of things.
E) seems to me as if Fordim is trying to play a numbers game based on nothing more than hope and gut instinct.
I’m not saying any of this to deny that there might be merit in what Fordim says. I am saying this to show that perhaps this is not the best theory that we want to act on at this critical juncture.
Now,
Here is a post that stretched to four pages in Word of evidence against The Saucepan Man. (Yes, I was tempted to repost the whole thing to make sure the villagers in question who need to read it would, but I decided to have confidence in them that they would click the link and reread it for themselves). This is not gut-instinct and numbers games. These are the actual things that The Saucepan Man has said and done and I believe they all corroborate my assertion against him. And anyone who thinks that I took him out of context, I encourage you to read the original posts themselves and see. If you think I took him out of context at some point, ask me about it and I'll try to explain (again) what I think it shows. I've got nothing to hide here.
And notice, he
still has not really confessed to his role in Evisse's death. He certainly stopped berating me for it, but he never explained why he mentioned her name three (that's
three) times before I ever mentioned her and then afterwards screeched to the heavens (and anybody else listening) that I was the one responsible for dragging him (kicking and screaming) into voting for Evisse. After I call him on it he tries to bury the matter.
There is another point to be considered here too. The very fact that I am still alive and have not been eaten in the middle of the night argue in my favor. If the Saucepan Man was innocent, the first thing the werewolves would want to do would be to kill me to show that I was innocent hoping that this would drive everyone into hanging Saucepan since I'd have suddenly become something of a martyr. This hasn't happened. I submit that the reason for my still being alive is that my death would be a disaster for the werewolves because it would show that I've been telling the truth. Notice how The Saucepan Man has completely cooled on having me lynched. He's afraid of what would come out if I were.
Now, he's going to come galloping out of the tall grass (again) and say that the reason why we are both still alive is that I'm the werewolf and I'm hoping to hang him. This would be very unwise on my part because if I were a werewolf and Saucepan were innocent, suspicion would
instantly turn against me and I'd be hopelessly exposed. I can also say that being inflexible is no way to be a werewolf. "Inflexible" is probably one of the kinder words that Fordim and Saucepan could throw at me (and probably would like to). Saucepan, on the other hand, has been as flexible and dodgy as one could possibly please.