Quote:
|
I would like to hear some good reasons behind your support of SpM, Fordim.
|
“Support” is not the word I would use; I think that we are merely heading in parallel directions. Why this might be I don’t know. If you are asking me for proof of
Saucy’s innocence I have none: that would be impossible (while he’s still alive that is).
By way of answer then…there are three possibilities:
1)
Sauce is a stupid wolf. This would explain why he is constantly doing things to bring down suspicion on himself and why he narrowly escaped lynching yesterday. The problem I have with this theory is that Sauce is not stupid. I can’t be any more persuasive than that: he just ain’t.
2)
Sauce is a smart wolf. For his behaviour to be that of a smart wolf, it would have to be of benefit to the other wolves. If the other wolves are part of the loudmouths, then his behaviour is not helpful to them, as he is constantly drawing attention to the loudmouthed camp (by responding to
Kuru’s clear obsession with lynching him, for example) which would render him a stupid wolf, which I don’t find likely (see above). If he is a smart wolf, then, he would have to be the only loudmouthed wolf, providing cover for the quiet wolves, distracting our attention and willingly putting himself in harm’s way to give them cover.
3)
Sauce is innocent.
Because I don’t find possibility number one probable, I won’t vote for him on that basis.
Because I won’t vote for an innocent, I won’t vote for him on the basis of possibility number three.
Because possibility number two involves Sauce as the lone loudmouthed wolf, with the other two hiding amongst the quiet wolves, I would rather go after the quiet wolves where I have a greater chance of nabbing a fuzzy beast than by flailing around madly amongst the loudmouthed wolves. This may look paradoxical insofar as I am saying I’d rather take my pick of 2 amongst 4 than 1 amongst 1 (that is, my choice is between, on the one hand, two of
Oddwen, Azaeilia, Holbytlass and Shelob and, on the other, only one of
Saucy). But the above possibilities do not hold to
Saucy alone, but to
all the loudmouths. So my choice is not 1 amongst 1 but 1 amongst 4 (
Kuru, TORE, Sauce, morm: and yes I know I’m not in that list because I’m obviously not going to vote for myself…!!).
So you see, I have no great faith in Sauce’s innocence; nor do I have any great faith in the innocence of any of the loudmouths (except myself): but I do know that there is
at most one smart wolf in that group of four and
at least two very smart wolves in the other, quieter group of four – and, yes, I still believe that it is entirely possible that all three of the monsters are of the quiet variety.
At any event, this will be my last chance to post until tomorrow morning, when I will only be able to get on again briefly at around 8 EDT before I shall be tied up again for the rest of the day, so it looks like I shall have to review all new posts at that time and then cast what will likely be among the first votes. All I can say is that I have yet to see any of the quiet villagers do or say anything to dispel my suspicions about them. To the loudmouthed villagers I will say this:
We’ve been carrying on this way for the length of the game and have yet to bag a wolf. Either we are looking in the wrong place, or we are looking in the wrong way. In either case, I would suggest that the time has come to shift our focus elsewhere. No matter where the wolves may be, keeping on as we have been is clearly only to their benefit.