[The Saucepan Man]

A few points, in no particular order:

Originally Posted by SpM

I am, as noted above, least suspicious of Evisse out of the "quiet" bunch.

I meant, of course, Shelob.

Originally Posted by Kuru

Firefoot's death nonwithstanding, my opinion of The Saucepan Man has not changed in the least.

You haven’t really explained why. If I was a Werewolf, why on earth would I kill Firefoot? She is one of the few people whose vote I probably could have counted on today, given that she has said on a number of occasions that I seem honest to her. It would have been far more logical for me to go for someone like mormegil, who has never really been accused by anyone up to now. If I was a Werewolf, Firefoot is one of the last people that I would have chosen to kill.

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

I believed that Phantom's rantings were one of desperation of being innocent and not wanting to be lynched.

Originally Posted by Kuru

Is The Saucepan Man's behavior really in line with what one would expect if one were falsely accused? Take a look at the phantom and me for instance. The phantom made a riotous clamor when he was falsely accused and ultimately so did I.

As I have said previously, unless they are the Seer or Guardian, it makes little sense for innocent Villagers to divert too much energy into defending themselves when they should be trying to find the Werewolves. To my mind, rigorous self-defence is the sign of either a a Seer/Guardian or a Werewolf. As for the Hunter, well there are time when the Hunter might be willing to die, if they are sufficiently certain that they will bag a Werewolf in the process.

Originally Posted by Kuru

We do know that you have been wrong about everything you have said. The same cannot be said for me because people aren't willing to find out.

I was wrong about Evisse and SoN. I had no choice in voting for the phantom, but he was not top of my list of suspects. You were wrong about Evisse and Firefoot. And you are wrong about me too and, if people want to “test” your theory, they will find out.

Quite early on today, mormegil said:

Originally Posted by mormegil

I am putting forth my list (yet another mormegil list) of where my suspion lies. It is in order.

I was 6th on the list, below Kuru who was 4th. Then, about 3 hours later:

Originally Posted by mormegil

I have a theory going right now and if I assume SpM to be guilty it leads me to some conclusions.

Without a word of explanation, mormegil has moved to a position where he is giving great credence to Kuru (who was 4th on his list) and considering me (6th on his list) a prime suspect. It was to be expected, as the two of them clearly want me to be lynched today. So does one other, but they have not yet broken cover. And now that I have made clear my suspicion of him, mormegil is able to come out and vote for me. Either it’s a “knee-jerk” reaction or mormegil planned to vote for me all along (and we all know how much mormegil dislikes knee-jerk reactions).

Originally Posted by TORE

… and his defense of his vote of the innocent phantom doesn't speak a lot to me. Any wolf (we're speaking hypothetically here) in question could wait until the vote was a tie or close to a tie & then vote for the innocent he was being tried against & say he did it in the interest of saving himself/preventing a double hanging. That does not necessarily make him innocent.

I never said that my vote for the phantom establishes my innocence. I said that it establishes nothing. So the evidence against me is no more advanced than it was yesterday.

Originally Posted by Kuru

There is another point to be considered here too. The very fact that I am still alive and have not been eaten in the middle of the night argue in my favor.

No it doesn’t. It suggests that you are a Werewolf, since killing you would have been the best way for the Werewolves to implicate me.

Originally Posted by Kuru

Now, he's going to come galloping out of the tall grass (again) and say that the reason why we are both still alive is that I'm the werewolf and I'm hoping to hang him. This would be very unwise on my part because if I were a werewolf and Saucepan were innocent, suspicion would instantly turn against me and I'd be hopelessly exposed.

Yes. The further the game goes on and you continue to insist on my guilt, the more exposed you will be when I am hanged and found to be innocent. But it is a valid strategy for one of the Werewolves to sacrifice him- or herself to get an innocent Villager hanged. You have said so yourself on a number of occasions previously. The longer the game goes on without a Werewolf being found, the more valid that strategy becomes.

OK, Kuru, you want me to address your “evidence” against me. I shall:

Originally Posted by Kuru

Three times you mentioned her name before I took your bait. You still have yet to explain that. Then comes the part about how you attempted to play up my role in it. Then comes the part about how you attempted to dodge the issue (and still are doing so by attempting to dismiss it by saying "I've talked about that" when you haven't). Then comes the part about how completely going to ground when the spotlight inevitably shines too brightly on you hoping that some other victim would turn up...

As for Evisse, I really don’t know what more I could have done to acknowledge my role in her death. I have repeatedly acknowledged it. Yes, on DAY 1, I mentioned her name three times before you barrelled in against her. Along with SoN and Fordim. I was theorising, and your thoughts seemed to confirm my theory. I am not playing up your role in Evisse’s death. I am merely pointing it out. At a time when I was considering her along with others, you came along and nudged me in her direction, probably because you suspected she might be the Seer. As for “going to ground”, I really do not know what you mean. Yes, I remained quiet on DAY 3, but explained at the time why I was doing that. Indeed, I stated at the outset that this was what I would be doing. I don’t really think that I could be described as “going to ground” at any other point in the game.

To summarise my case against Kuru in a nutshell:

1) He was instrumental in nudging me towards voting for Evisse.
2) His defensiveness on DAY 2 was extraordinary, starting at a time when there were no accusations against him and building up as first I, then Firefoot, accused him. I find it difficult to believe that an innocent Villager would be quite so defensive in those circumstances.
3) Since the middle of DAY 2, he has single-mindedly accused me over and over again, without even considering the possibility that he might be wrong (just as mormegil single mindedly accused the phantom until he got him lynched).

There are other points too, set out in my post above, but these are the main ones.

The single-mindedness seems like a good Werewolf strategy to me. Keep two inncocent Villagers in people’s minds by constantly posting against them. Then, when one of them is lynched, move on to another. They are already beginning to prepare the groundwork for accusing Fordim in this regard. Also, Kuru has stated on a number of occasions how he considers indecisiveness as indicative of slipperiness and, therefore, guilt. But, as all innocent Villagers know, it is natural to be indecisive in this game when you are innocent. It is natural to change one’s mind as the game progresses. Only the Werewolves know who is innocent, and can therefore be single-minded it targeting them.

Kuru is yet to address these points (or the others made in my long post above) properly.

Finally, Fordim, while your “quiet” Villager theory has some merit, I have difficulty in voting for one of them since I remain unsure which one the Werewolf might be (and I think that it’s only one). On the other hand, I am pretty much convinced of Kuru’s guilt. Your "numbers" theory points to Kuru for me.

Heck, I could be wrong about Kuru. I have been before, and I cannot be 100% certain. But, I'm pretty sure it's him so, as far as I am concerned, the best course of action is to vote for him.