Oh dear…we’re picking up right where we left off. Two loudmouths going away at each other making it virtually guaranteed that one of them is going to get hanged today. To clarify, then:
Saucy’s theory:
morm and Kuru are wolves who have been systematically going after other loudmouths with the support of one quiet wolf.
Kuru’s theory:
Sauce is a werewolf and there are two more out there somewhere.
My theory: one of either
morm, Kuru, TORE or Sauce are wolves providing cover for the two quiet wolves.
Of the three I still think, obviously, that my theory has the greatest merit
. In response to the other two, I have to say that I find Sauce’s theory the more sound insofar as it takes into account a much broader picture: it makes a logical argument for the voting patterns and behaviour of the wolves as a group, rather than singling out a single person. So obviously, I think that
Kuru’s theory is the less compelling – I have yet to see any real argument from him which would put the actions and votes of
Sauce into a context that clearly points to his co-ordinated effort with other wolves.
Next, there are – so far – three suggested courses of action, based on these theories:
1) Lynch
Kuru. If he’s a wolf, go after
morm next.
2) Lynch
Sauce. If he’s a wolf…I’m not sure who is being suggested as the next target, but I suspect that Sauce is right and that it would be me.
3) Lynch one of the quiet villagers, either
Holby or
Oddwen. If she is a wolf, then go after the other one next. Oops, wait, I’ve just seen
Holby’s vote for Sauce – that tears it: she’s probably one of the quiet wolves.
And finally, one more list. What do we gain from each possible course of action if the hanged person is an innocent?
1) If we lynch
Kuru and find that he’s an innocent I’m not sure that it proves anything.
Sauce has not campaigned for his death, he’s only been defending himself so it wouldn’t prove that
Sauce is a wolf. It might cast more suspicion on
morm, who could be a wolf using
Kuru as his innocent dupe, and possibly on
TORE.
2) If we lynch
Sauce and find that he’s innocent we can pretty much be certain that
Kuru is either a smart wolf working with two quiet wolves, or an innocent who’s the dupe of another loudmouthed wolf (
morm?).
3) If we lynch
Holby and find that she’s innocent I’m not sure that anything new is learned either. Well, I won’t think that anything new is learned, but I’m sure that everyone else will be sure that you’ve found a wolf in the form of
Fordim!
At any event, things are – as always – moving along very quickly and it would appear that my cogitations are perhaps pointless insofar as there are already three votes against
The Saucepan Man. To this point I have tried to cast my vote in response to the votes of others, but from here on out I am going to vote the way my reasoning takes me and not strategically. To that end I here vote that we hang:
++Holbytlass
I must head off for a day of work now, and I shan’t have a chance to check in again until later this afternoon… I have no idea how I am going to concentrate on the matters at hand, however, with this going on!