[The Only Real Estel]

A few thoughts on my suspicions (if any) on the remaining villagers:

Azaelia of Willowbottom- Hasn’t posted enough for me to be suspicious yet (unless you count being suspicious because of a lack of posting). As far as I can tell she has only posted four times, twice to vote for phantom on days 2 & 3.

Fordim Hedgethistle- I was originally suspicious of both Saucepan Man, SoN, & him; then was suspicious of SpM & him after reexamining SoN’s last theory. Now that SpM is gone & has proven innocent I am having trouble trusting my own methods & feel the need to turn to Fordim since Sauce & Morm (the two latest to die) both thought that he was innocent. Was also defended by Firefoot (along with SpM & I) before her horses were killed & she drowned. Outlined a ‘short list’ of SpM, phantom, & I – with two of those widely-known innocents & the other one I am entirely sure of his innocence. Still, I am under the impression (as was Saucey) that he did this to obviously to have had wolfish intent (unless it’s a sort of double-bluff tactic...).

Holbytlass- A little surprised by the ‘surprising amount of vehemence’ she displayed as described by Fordim above, but generally I haven’t given many of the ‘silent ones’ much thought. Saucepan Man seemed to become convinced of her guilt before he was unfortunately hung, but I’m not entirely sure that I see his reasoning behind that (other than that she voted for him). Fordim’s recent post on her, among other things, I am still considering.

Kuruharan- Was strangely defensive when questioned by only two villagers – Saucey & Firefoot (who both have proved to be innocents) – and that was in the very early going. Strange that he should make such a big deal of two people questioning him, but he did. Still, this did not make me overly suspicious. Has been rather ‘single-minded,’ as the late Saucey put it. Heightened my suspicions a bit when he went a bit overboard on the ‘evidence’ against Saucey. It would seem that he tried to convince the villagers of an innocent’s guilt by overwhelming them with how much evidence he could bring up to support his theory, which would usually point towards someone not having many really strong points to draw upon.

Oddwen- Indicated in post #318 (page 8) that her top three suspects were SpM, Morm, & Holby. SpM & Morm have since proved innocent, but I cannot come close to convicting her on such evidence as this.

Shelob- Voted for Saucepan Man because his evidence seemed to be ‘to well put together.’ I am not sure that I would want to lynch someone on the basis of trying to have an airtight case, unless his or her post included facts that none but a wolf could possibly know... Accused by Fordy in his above post. I am still thinking it over.

The Only Real Estel- I have no reason to suspect myself that I know of.

Originally posted by Shelob:

I still feel strongly that Kuru is a werewolf...but the only argument against him is one based on strategy...Saucepan Man has a few stronger points against him.

You justified voting for SpM instead of Kuru because the only argument against him was based on strategy. I would argue that about the only arguments that hold much water in this ga-er-village are the ones that are based upon ones strategy/patterns/voting record (though the voting record can be easily manipulated as I've said before).

Originally posted by Fordim:

"At the risk of hubris I rather suspect that I might have been the beneficiary of our brave guardian's aid that night."

Originally posted by Shelob:

makes me rather nervous...When first I read it I thought that his reasoning was sound and that it makes sense...but if the werewolves had tried to kill him once it is likely they would have tried again...esp. once they got the Guardian out of the picture...but now that he has not yet died I begin to feel that the above mentioned post was meant to make us trust that the guardian had saved him...but perhaps poor Firefoot had saved another and a werewolf was trying to buy another point of innocence (for clearly the Guardian could neither dispute nor confirm this assumption with out announcing themselves to the world and to the werewolves)

And Fordim was not the only one to make this assumption...Mormegil, innocent Mormegil, said:

"I honestly feel that I was saved by the guardian last night. I say this because who else has been as vocal as I against those who are most suspicious."

This reasoning makes as much sense as Fordim's does and has since been supported by Mormegil's rather gruesome death...

Good point. I would definitly expect the wolves to go right back to Fordim after having failing once - and especially after they had dispatched of Firefoot. If we assume that it was Mormegil who was guarded that night then it all makes perfect sense - the wolves tried to kill morm, couldn't, figured out that Firefoot was most likely the guardian (which she was), killed her, then proceeded to kill morm. This is exactly the way I would expect it to go, but it is clearly not the way it went if the wolves had tried to kill Fordim that night. But of course it is quite possible that Fordim simply thought that he was the one protected that night, & happened to be wrong (or he could be right, for all we know). This whole 'who was guarded' argument really only clears up one thing - that it was most likely not Fordim, & that proves nothing as to his guilt or innocence.

I am going to take a moment to finish reviewing the thread & then I'll post again, but RL is going to keep me from voicing my vote in the morning (as I'd like to, so that I could hear more evidence) so I'll probably have to do it tonight. Alas, to be rushed on what could be the last night to live...