[The Only Real Estel]

Kuru, for what it is worth, I no longer think that you are wolf, only an innocent patsy. That is, of course, if you are still alive…

What is the reasoning behind the sudden change of thinking?

The Only Real Estel and Holbytlass, on the other hand, you are both fuzzy monsters, and clumsy ones at that. Your little charade yesterday of handing over to us your companion has not worked. TORE: your heavy-pawed attempt to save Holby by forcing me to vote for Shelob was about as subtle as a sledgehammer.

I voted for Shelob because I trusted that you were right in your theory. You seemed equally sure of both Shelob's & Holbytlass's guilt & I was more sure of Shelob's. Knowing that I would not be able to be on in the morning (as I clearly posted), I had to cast my vote when I did - and I cast it for Shelob, hoping that it would clear up something I had been thinking about. After all, we could always lynch Holby next round, I thought.

And Holby, your triumphant crow about your own innocence as you offered up your sacrificial victim rang just as hollow. I’m no fool

The 'crow of innocence' didn't fool anybody, I don't think. I know I still planned on voting for her today.

I know that even if you lost one wolfish-ally you would still be in charge today

Actually, I had thought of the possibility of a Fordim, Shelob, Holby alliance, after you implicated both of them there would be no way in the world that we wouldn't trust you. You could then lead us to lynch the last villager that seperated us from a tie.

And I’m also not fooled by your attempt to discredit me: “Look everyone,” I can already hear you saying, “Fordim wanted to vote for Holby, who is clearly innocent because she voted for Shelob. It’s a good thing that TORE and Holby pointed you all in the right direction…Fordim would have led you astray: he must be the wolf!”

This would indeed be the most clumsy, 'heavy-pawed' tactic on the face of this earth.

The fact that I am alive this DAY is demonstrable proof of your strategy…

Why does this prove anything? You said yourself:

If I had been killed in the night and proven innocent, would you have any doubt of who the wolves were??

Why would that change? I fully expected the wolves to leave you alive & then we could work together to bring down Holby; apparently you are actually bent on bringing the village down, not the wolves.

As I did yesterday, however, I shall allow the wolves to speak for themselves. I have already demonstrated Holby’s guilt, so all that remains is to show up TORE for the monster that he is using his own words.

The only way that this would happen would be if my words were twisted...

Just like his counterparts, of course, he suddenly decided that he did not like the plan when the other loudmouths turned on it

I gave a good reason. I was basing my partial support of the theory on totally faulty & completely ignorant evidence. He who can not change his mind in need is in fetters. Besides, I seem to remember quite a few other people who have proved to be innocent that 'switched lanes'.

(Posted by me, reposted by Fordim in an effort to prove that I wolfishly flip-flopped:

While I see your point on the short list, Fody, I think that I would also be more for the seer protection idea than the short list. I think anyone that votes for an innocent to be lynched is automatically elevated to the top of everyone's suspect list, though they might not announce it for everyone to hear/see. And pretty much the same goes for anyone that didn't/couldn't vote, although that's sometimes based more on the villager's 'real life' circumstances.

What is wrong again with this reasoning? The only thing that you said was that I changed my mind...

Having done his wolfish flip-flop, the first targets he names are all loudmouths

I've already re-mentioned my reasoning behind the switch. Funny that you did not fully represent the facts by posting both sides of the story.

Whether we end up implementing Fordim's plan or not seems to remain to be seen. I'm caught in the middle of it myself (as I've said before). If it is to be a gauge for us to discern werewolves who are reluctant to set it up, we should be at least casting a glance or two in the direct of the guy who be short. He has been rather adament about not liking the changes, so that could be looked upon as suspicious. At the same time I realize that he could have perfectly impeccable motives for not liking the new plan--as I said I myself have reservations but neither do I suspect myself.

I belive it was the innocent SpM who originally brought up that your 'plans' might be really just a gauge, I expounded on this theory.

As to Mormegil, I think we can be fairly certain that we know absolutely nothing about his innocence or guiltiness. One cannot proclaim him guilty simply because of his profession (one could argue that because my business has fallen on hard times that makes me a desperate man [or wolf], so our choices of employment cannot realy be used against us).

I fail to see why posting in the defense of someone early on is being used against me...

TORE and Holby to stage their little “Let’s-rally-round-Fordim-and-prove-our-innocence” dance

I thought that because SpM, Morm, & Firefoot (to name a few) considered you to be innocent I could trust you to help guide the innocent villagers to the right decisions. Obviously Holby and any other wolf would vote for Shelob after your 'all the innocents must post together' bit - who in their right mind would vote otherwise after that? But perhaps my trust has been misplaced after all...

Posted by me:

If you are indeed innocent my attention will turn to SpM & tp.

Posted by Fordy:

Really quite brilliant, I think; I doff my cap. At one fell swoop you vote for an innocent who is already clearly doomed, following the logic – as you are clear to point out – of another innocent. You then state that “if” the innocent is found innocent you will have grounds to suspect two other innocents! And we all remember what happened after this: the loudmouths got out of control and, quel surprise, of the five people you mention in these posts, four are dead within a couple of days… I also note your care in not going after our resident loose cannon Kuru, which was SpM’s one real mistake

I would suspect anyone who vicously attacked an innocent, & any innocent villager should have looked at those two in that particular situation.

TORE then goes very quiet for almost a full day before putting up a long post in which he details his two theories

If I remember right this was on Sunday, a day that I specifically posted and said I would not be able to post on until late, if then. And yet this is being used against me?

(referring to my SpM, SoN, tp theory):

Again, putting attention on loudmouthed innocents, and not going after the wolves’ patsy Kuru. And he bangs away in this vein for the next while

SoN had cast suspicions on himself by posting infrequently, how does that qualify him as a 'loud-mouthed' innocent?

Posted by me:

I do not think I will vote for phantom because Saucepan's seeming pardon of Fordim has me uneasy and makes me want to substitue Fordim for phantom in my theory (because it would work just as well that way as with the phantom in it)

Saucepan Man switched lanes to declare you innocent based on the same evidence that he was using to suggest you were guilty. How could I not be suspicious?

That night, however, he votes to lynch Sono, and does so at the very last minute. The following DAY he gives us this shocking explanation for having waited so long to vote, but only after another long silence which he broke only once to explain that he would have to delay answering the question put forth about the lateness of his vote

I voted to lynch him for the 'shocking reasons' that I have already posted before. And I am sorry that I couldn't show up sooner, I seem to remember RL sideling you at least once as well (forcing you into an early vote for the departed phantom)?

Frankly, I’m ashamed that I did not see this for the self-serving claptrap that it was at the time and zero in on this fiendishly clever wolf a lot earlier…

I still don't see it as being self-serving claptrap...

Posted by me:

...with Saucey probably going to vote for phantom & Shelob probably going to vote for Saucey

Again, I doff my cap: brilliant! “Hey, he based his whole voting strategy on the assumption that Shelob would vote for Sauce and she didn’t! They clearly can’t both be wolves!”

I would hardly consider that to be good evidence for us to not be wolves.

I am somewhat suprised that Shelob has voted the way that she has, especially given that she voted for Saucepan Man last DAY…If Shelob voted for Sauce last time I would expect her to follow through with it this time...unless she isn't following through because Sauce would be gone if she voted for him this time.

I was taking some stock in Kuru's theory. Forgive me.

The next day, in a long post(279), TORE begins by saying that there’s merit to my quiet wolf theory, entertains for a moment that I might be right about Shelob and Holby and then goes on to incriminate Sauce and me. This same strategy is present in all his posts through the next DAY…

Remembered SoN's theory. I thought I would have a better chance of bagging a wolf in the 'loud' group, since the quite ones had posted so little to work with.

Which brings me back to the events of the last DAY, which I have already commented on above. The only thing that needs to be mentioned here is that on every DAY, The Only Real Estel was either the very last, or among the very last villagers to vote. Not so yesterday. Yesterday, he could not vote fast enough. Yesterday, he was the first to cast a vote, thus forcing my hand. This cunning wolf – who, throughout the game always wanted to “wait and see” to “weigh his options” – chose to cast the first vote on the one DAY on which casting the first vote determines the outcome of the vote.

Strange that you have not been posting my specific explanations for voting/disappearing as I have. And why does it bother you that we lynched Shelob instead of Holby? There would have been plenty of time to get her today, as I had planned on doing - but good Az took her out to shorten things for us.

I'm way past my time limit. Since Shelob was a wolf I suspected Kuru because of Shelob's absurd 'reasoning' behind voting for SpM instead of Kuru. Now that Fordim has attacked an innocent villager, I am considering him as well. And there is still this inner feeling in me that is telling me not to vote for Kuru...I will vote tommorrow, Oddwen, I'm sorry that you've fallen for this. Lynching me will cause the wolves to lay waste to the village, do not lynch me!