Quote:
Chances are high that he or she knows the identity of somebody that, quite frankly, we don't care about.
|
Wrong.
If the seer is able to identify someone as being innocent, it is extremely valuable if you know how to use the information.
If the number of proven innocents ever equals the number of wolves then the villagers automatically win if they behave correctly.
I don't expect you to see how that works. It's a bit complicated and tough to figure out at first, but it's true.
Quote:
There's a chance, however small, that the wolves are going to kill our Seer tonight any how, unless of course he or she comes out and says "Hey everybody, I'm the Seer. Ranger, you need to protect me tonight." In that case, the wolves have the chance of slaughtering the Ranger instead, and then the Seer is up for grabs the next night.... The Seer could be killed tonight, and then you wasted a life for nothing.
|
The chance of the seer or Ranger getting killed during the night will not be affected by who we kill today, so no, the life will not have been wasted.
If they kill the seer then they kill the seer. There's nothing we can do about that.
Quote:
I'll take my chances with luck
|
Luck over a more statistically sound plan?
Typical seventeen year old.