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Old 06-22-2005, 05:23 AM   #11
Celuien
Riveting Ribbiter
 
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Join Date: May 2005
Location: Assigned to Mordor
Posts: 1,767
Celuien has just left Hobbiton.
The time for a vote is drawing near, and I'm still so lost.

After consideration, my final vote on the phantom's plan will have to be a no. I think it was a rational enough plan, but I don't see enough of a risk/benefit trade-off to justify going after a known innocent (not to repeat myself too much), even with the volunteer that we now have.

And now a quick disclaimer: the following opinions and theories are related solely to events on day one. Future deviations from these theories should be taken in the context of the day on which they occur and not necessarily considered flip-floppin or werewolf-like behavior.

At this point, the phantom, Fea and Eomer are at the bottom of my suspect list. The plan put forward by the phantom does seem to have been put forward with the interest of the village at heart, even if I can't agree with it. Fea's actions in the argument look to be more like debate than trying to set anyone up for lynching.

Eomer has been mentioned as a suspect based on his slip of the tongue earlier, but I don't think it makes him a wolf. If it's a genuine mistake, it's one that a smart wolf wouldn't be likely to make since they have to be guarded. It's too easy for us to pick up on something small as an excuse for lynching on the first day. If it's intentional, it's also un-wolf-like because it's too obvious a double-blind for a wolf, again leading to lynching. But I can think of a good reason for an innocent to put a baited slip like that out for discussion.

I'm not sure what to think of lmp, but I like the poetry. And I think it's a good idea to keep louder participants around for a while.

This, of course, leaves me with a wide field from which to pick my vote. I have some other theories as well, but this isn't a good time to put them forward. I need more data, and I'm afraid of causing confusion or aiding the wolves if I put my idea out too soon, whether I'm right or wrong. But RL is calling at the moment so further discussion and my vote will have to wait for a bit.
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