Very good points, Formendacil , Alatar and Elianna!
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I would particularly like to know if this theme is ultimately religious
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Here is what Tolkien wrote in letter #195
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Actually I am a Christian, and indeed a Roman Catholic, so that I do not expect "history" to be anything but a "long defeat" - though it contains (and in legend may contain more clearly and movingly) some samples or glimpses of final victory.
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I rather share his pessimistic view. But it is not without hope - although "hope without guarantees" (to use Tolkien's expression) - and the hope has its foundation in his religion, I guess.
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originally posted by Alatar:
If Tolkien were writing a pseudo-history, well, then, he knew where the story had to end, which would be with us and our world as it is in its present state.
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I think that that is just what he did! (I could dig out some quotations from the letters to prove it...)