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Old 06-26-2005, 06:39 AM   #245
Evisse the Blue
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Fortune cookie of the day is: Doubt what you may but never doubt yourself

or, to keep it short and sweet, Trust no1.

Quote:
"Evisse voted for Lalaith. She thinks now that there was a possible conspiracy to lynch the phantom, which failed. That would mean that her suspects are Anguirel and ... um ... Eomer. But that doesn't work, since Eomer's innocent. And dead."
No. Let me explain what my theory was:

The phantom was not killed the previous night in order to lynch him the next day. The werewolves set a bait: as anticipated, Eomer took up on the obvious idea and started the anti-phantom bandwagon. Two things became apparent during Day 2 events: that the phantom was protecting Saurreg, and while for the innocents this could look suspicious, that could only mean one thing for the werewolves: that the two were the Shiriffs; second that the villagers were more convinced of the phantom's innocence than Eomer's. Now, I'm not discounting the possibility that wolves may have voted for Eomer too. But my theory at the moment is that they had been meaning to lynch the phantom, but then, when too many people turned to vote for Eomer, they realized this was a lost cause, so they stopped trying to vote for the phantom, as it would have achieved nothing. Saurreg said: "yesterday's voting was supposed to be between Eomer and phantom." Yes, this is certainly how it looked like up to a certain point. How then did Oddwen attract so many votes as to have a tie with the much more unpopular at the time Eomer? Of course you can say: people were uncertain of either one's guilt. Fair enough. But why did everyone who didn't vote for either Eomer or tp turned to Oddwen? Why not scatter the votes? The higher the probability you'd make a wolf sit up and pay attention, maybe even make a mistake. The trouble with boarding any bandwagon is that it makes the Day's voting and probable outcome very predictable for the wolves. So if they're clever they plan everything in advance and the rest of us are just gonna go with the flow.

Anyway. I heard Lalaith's defense, (numerical confusion) now I would like to hear Esga's.
She also voted for Oddwen at a time when she couldn't have known (if she's innocent) that a wolf wouldn't step in to create a tie. A vote for anyone else could have assured no possibility of creating a tie. She also made it clear that she didn't suspect Oddwen all that much. In fact, she's another one of those who you can't tell whom they are suspecting.

Anguirel, I'm ready to believe your 'protection' of Lalaith as based on a gut feeling, as I had a similar feeling when it came to Eomer's and phantom's innocence, but I can't overlook the fact that you were the first to vote for phantom yesterday being very sure of his guilt, and tried to get as many people to do the same.

Also, everyone, remember gut feelings can be wrong.

Make of this theory what you will.

As I said, I'll like to hear more from Esgalhugwen.

Dancing spawn looks suspicious to me at the moment because I can't place her anywhere. Unless she's just a very confused innocent, she could very well be a wolf who's lying low and not venturing any daring remarks.

Now, Nilpaurion Felagund. He makes this funny post here:

Quote:
"Then there's this added advantage--we could put blame on the phantom, who could shift blame to Eomer. Because of this confusion, they'll both die. Muahahahaha!

Having said that, lynch me. Now.

Post-traumatic Possum. We intend to kill the gifted villagers through lynching, though. They taste bad. (Sorry to any gifted villagers there.)"
Heh. Interesting strategy I must say. Not far from what actually happened. Except that Oddwen died too, whom Nilp voted as if to avert blame in case both the phantom and Eomer got indeed lynched together.
Unless I hear more of Nilp's 'serious personality' I'm gonna assume he's a werewolf hiding in the open.

The only person I don't suspect at the moment is Saurreg, for reasons that I think are obvious to everyone.

Now I'm gonna go and prepare a salad with tomatoes, green pepper, bacon and salty cheese, which everyone will surely enjoy.
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