The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Tol-in-Gaurhoth IV (The Saga, erm, Still Continues...)

littlemanpoet · 06-30-2005, 09:15 AM

Well, yeah. I was a bit ticked about Esgal. Talk about rotten luck! I may be at fault in the way Hookbill played. Before the game started, I figured I wasn't going to be a werewolf but considered what my strategy would be if I ever was: to convince myself for DAY segments that I was NOT a werewolf, and post thusly. I challenged Esgal and Hookbill to try it out, and my guess is that they did their best. Problem was, it was a strategy that was right for me but probably not for them. I'd say it worked for me fairly well early. The closer to the end of the game, the harder it was to pull off. Frankly, when Esgal went down and Hookbill had already been virtually promised a lynching on the following day, that's when I started feeling desperate. From there on my game plan was to not show it.

I am RELIEVED it's over. If I am ever a werewolf again, it will be too soon. I didn't actually want to be one the first time, and tgwbs will confirm that my response was "YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING!"

I did make some rookie mistakes early. Such as beating on Eomer on Day One. Such as picking Azaelia for no good reason other than whim. And I made a strategic mistake (can't say rookie anymore) on the final day, which was to pounce on Lalaith. Same thing I did with Eomer. If I had voted for Evisse, there still would have been enough votes available to double-lynch me as well, though, though Firefoot would have probably joined us against Evisse, so it would have been 4 to 3; but I would probably have gone down the following day anyway.

I considered the odds of taking out a known innocent versus risking the hunter in order to try to get the cursed villager. The way I saw it, getting the cursed villager was on a relatively consistent risk ratio of 8:1. The Hunter would have had to choose me on the night that I chose the hunter, so the risk ratio was a lot higher, but shrinking the further into the game we went.

Notice, folks, that the phantom's plan was inadvertently used, and worked. Innocents were lynched early and the Seer remained unlynched long enough to do the damage needed for the village to win. If, however, Esgal had stayed in the game longer, Ang had revealed himself too boldly, too soon.

Most of the strategic things I posted were things I truly believed to be the case, which was all part of trying to not only appear, but think, innocent.

More on strategy when I get to my home computer where I can quote at length from PMs.

Oh, one final thing. Nobody noticed how Hookbill and I made seriously bad werewolf mistakes in the first day, posting during NIGHT hours. But nobody picked up on it, much to my relief.

06-30-2005, 09:15 AM	#445
littlemanpoet Itinerant Songster Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: The Edge of Faerie Posts: 7,066	just a wee bit of sour grapes plus other stuff Well, yeah. I was a bit ticked about Esgal. Talk about rotten luck! I may be at fault in the way Hookbill played. Before the game started, I figured I wasn't going to be a werewolf but considered what my strategy would be if I ever was: to convince myself for DAY segments that I was NOT a werewolf, and post thusly. I challenged Esgal and Hookbill to try it out, and my guess is that they did their best. Problem was, it was a strategy that was right for me but probably not for them. I'd say it worked for me fairly well early. The closer to the end of the game, the harder it was to pull off. Frankly, when Esgal went down and Hookbill had already been virtually promised a lynching on the following day, that's when I started feeling desperate. From there on my game plan was to not show it. I am RELIEVED it's over. If I am ever a werewolf again, it will be too soon. I didn't actually want to be one the first time, and tgwbs will confirm that my response was "YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING!" I did make some rookie mistakes early. Such as beating on Eomer on Day One. Such as picking Azaelia for no good reason other than whim. And I made a strategic mistake (can't say rookie anymore) on the final day, which was to pounce on Lalaith. Same thing I did with Eomer. If I had voted for Evisse, there still would have been enough votes available to double-lynch me as well, though, though Firefoot would have probably joined us against Evisse, so it would have been 4 to 3; but I would probably have gone down the following day anyway. I considered the odds of taking out a known innocent versus risking the hunter in order to try to get the cursed villager. The way I saw it, getting the cursed villager was on a relatively consistent risk ratio of 8:1. The Hunter would have had to choose me on the night that I chose the hunter, so the risk ratio was a lot higher, but shrinking the further into the game we went. Notice, folks, that the phantom's plan was inadvertently used, and worked. Innocents were lynched early and the Seer remained unlynched long enough to do the damage needed for the village to win. If, however, Esgal had stayed in the game longer, Ang had revealed himself too boldly, too soon. Most of the strategic things I posted were things I truly believed to be the case, which was all part of trying to not only appear, but think, innocent. More on strategy when I get to my home computer where I can quote at length from PMs. Oh, one final thing. Nobody noticed how Hookbill and I made seriously bad werewolf mistakes in the first day, posting during NIGHT hours. But nobody picked up on it, much to my relief.