Regarding Saurreg
Quote:
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Originally Posted by the guy
After voting for Eomer, he tells us he thought Eomer was a Shirriff! Why would an innocent vote for somebody he thought was a Shirriff?
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Although I found
Saurreg's post defending his vote against
Eomer rather confusing, I was able to glean that he had thought that
Eomer was
either a werewolf or a shirriff.
So either
Saurreg is a werewolf trying to be deviously misleading, or he honestly decided that
the guy was right that
Eomer wasn't a shirriff, and therefore must be a werewolf.
I honestly find the second of these two choices more likely.
The only damaging evidence is that he was the second to vote for
Eomer
Regarding Holbytlass
After rereading all her posts, I see that the only real damaging evidence is that she was the last to vote for
Eomer. Everything else looks like somebody stumbling through and making sense of things on the second or third try (not unlike
Kath who was innocent).
Now, I really doubt that more than one werewolf voted for the same person (Eomer). It's possible that I'm wrong, but it would be unwise to bandwagon like that. The only reasoning against that would be a
Feanorian double-bluff, figuring that since people would think it too stupid, then do it because the best place to hide is out in the open. Are our werewolves capable of that kind of thinking? It depends on how experienced and/or intelligent at least one of them is.
I've been leaning toward two rookies (gilly and Lhun) and one veteran (Holby) so far, but my theory could be as holey as a sieve.
An Alternative Theory of Werewolvishness
So what if we have a very experienced and excellently double bluffing trio of werewolves? Who would be hiding out in the open, which translates as playing an aggressive game that is well thought out in advance to redirect opinion away from themselves, and spread the voting out over as many villagers as possible in order to avoid suspicion brought on by the hardest evidence of all (i.e. voting record)? I know it can't be
the guy, nor myself, being shirriffs. Who have been the smart, aggressive ones who have been the most influential, including mentioning each other as suspicious, maybe even planning cross-posts? Not saying that I believe this to be the case, but sure can't be overlooked. The people who have filled this category are:
mormegil (voted for Gil-galad);
Firefoot (also voted for Gil-galad); and
Saurreg (voted for Eomer).
I didn't say that this working theory would lead to conclusive evidence, and it has not done so. If the theory held,
morm and
Firefoot would have voted for different people, and the werewolves would have tried to make sure an innocent got lynched; we're not sure if
Gil is innocent.
I wanted to bring this up for us to think about carefully, because it would be a very werewolfish thing to be quick to bandwagon onto a very good plan so as to avoid suspicion. Note,
morm and
ff were the first two to approve of my plan. That does not mean I think they're werewolves. All of FF's posts point to her
not being a werewolf (but she thought the same of me in another life). Of course, that M and F were quick to approve of my plan may show nothing more than that they are innocent loudmouths who are intelligent enough to see that it's a great idea and therefore approved it on its obvious merits.
Okay, I've had my say. I don't want us bandwagoning against three innocents. It would waste a Day and Night.