[The Saucepan Man]

Hmm, some interesting developments while I have been away.

I said that I would explain why I believe that CaptainofDespair may (note the emphasis on may) be the Black Beorning. And so that is what I shall do.

I do not believe him to be a Wolf. He started the ball rolling with a vote against Mithalwen after quite strong suspicions had been voiced against her. It was clear at that stage that others would probably follow suit. I do not believe that a Wolf would vote for another Wolf in those circumstances. Far too risky.

But this is the behaviour of a Black Beorning - to pick up on suggestions of guilt (in others than himself) and encourage them. Interestingly, earlier on Day 1 (post #36), he had picked up on the suspicions then being voiced against Gurthang and also made a random accusation against Durelin (perhaps to add her name into the mix). Next time he posted (post #49) was to vote against Mithalwen after Gurthang, Firefoot, SamwiseGamgee and wilwarin538 had all commented on her suspicious behaviour. Not the actions of a Wolf - but the Bear doesn’t mind who is lynched as long as it’s not him and his name is kept off people’s list of suspects. If Mithalwen turned out to be a Wolf (as she did), his first vote for her would stand to his credit. If not, that would be an innocent Villager down and he could distance himself from the outcome by pointing out the earlier suspicions voiced by others. He was quiet for the rest of the day.

As I said earlier, the Bear is likely to be throwing accusations about while trying not to look too conspicuous. He doesn’t mind who he accuses because he doesn’t care who gets lynched as long as it’s not him. CaptainofDespair started off today (at post #83) by voicing mild suspicion of no less than six Villagers - LMP, wilwa, Gurthang, Menel, Lalaith and Gil-Galad. Two of those (Gurthang and Menel) have not behaved remotely suspiciously in my view.

But what I find really interesting is the following:

Originally Posted by Durelin at #95

What's scary is that the bear could be anywhere. The bear could be CaptainofDespair, or SamwiseGamgee, or Meneltmarcil, or Boromir88...it could be anyone.

Originally Posted by CaptainofDespair at #98

Me? A Bear? *gasps* What nonsense! I can assure you, on the honor of my shrews, that I am no such thing.

Durelin’s accusation was not a serious one. She was simply making the (valid) point that the Bear could be anyone. So why did CaptainofDespair feel the need to jump in and refute the suggestion quite so defiantly? (I see that Boromir88 has picked up on this too.)

I also said earlier that the Bear is likely to encourage any suggestion that another Villager might be the Bear. Which is exactly what CaptainofDespair did (#110) in response to arcticstorm’s suggestion that Laitaine might be the Bear. And although I still harbour suspicions that Laitaine may be a Wolf, she is no Bear. It is very unlikely that the Bear (who needs to stay alive more than any other Villager since otherwise he/she has lost) would risk killing the person he/she voted for the Day before. And only Laitaine voted for Alcarillo on Day 1.

So this was the state of the evidence when I made my suggestion that CaptainofDespair might be the Bear. I really was in a hurry, and so could not elaborate. But I was also interested to see what his reaction would be without such elaboration.

And what does CaptainofDespair do? He reacts quite strongly by calling the Village’s bluff, adding a vague implication that he might be a Gifted Villager:

Originally Posted by CaptainofDespair at #128

Go ahead. Lynch me.

You'll be sorry when my death is shown as a vain enterprise. Then, you'll have another night where two will die.

Then, just after SamwiseGamgee has voiced a mild suspicion of me, he picks this up and runs with it by voting for me (#139). What’s more, he accuses me of being the Black Beorning on the basis that I have been zealously seeking Wolves while providing “little in the way of tracking down the Beorning”. Well, excuse me, but (as Boromir88 has pointed out) I believe that I am one of the few Villagers who has made any effort to consider how we might identify the Black Beorning. In my view, his vote was simply a reaction to my having voiced suspicions against him, as his stated reasons for doing so do not stand up to scrutiny.

CaptainofDespair’s reaction to my suggestion that he may be the Bear has therefore simply served to strengthen my belief in his ursine nature.

And yet I hesitate to condemn him. He is the only Villager who has given me any basis for suspecting as the Bear. But I may very well be wrong. If we want to lynch the Bear, he seems the prime candidate. But the evidence is circumstantial and he may yet turn out to be innocent. I accuse him in good faith, but I am most reluctant to see the blood of an innocent on my hands. And that is why (for the time being) I only say that he may be the Bear.

More later, once I have had time to muse over the other matters discussed while I was away.

(I realise that this repeats some of the reasoning recently expressed by other Villagers, but I composed it before reading their posts. It is encouraging to see that others are thinking along the same lines.)