[The Saucepan Man]

OK, folks, let’s not panic. While there’s no denying that arcticstorm’s death is a blow, it was not unexpected. And it was likely that another innocent would die too. I’m sorry that it was wilwarin, but it at least knocks another Villager off my suspect list. Take heart, fellow Villagers. Let’s look on the positives. We killed another Wolf last night, a fantastic result, and we still have our Seer and our Hunter.

Now, I have to date advocated keeping an eye out for the Bear, and I counsel no differently to-Day. But we have now happily arrived at a situation where killing either the Wolf or the Bear will put an end to the two kills per night. And, while a lone Wolf may be more difficult to spot, we do have much more to go on as far as the Wolf is concerned. In particular, the votes cast to date. I therefore believe that we should today concentrate on catching the last Wolf. The fact that we have now killed two Wolves makes the previous days’ votes even more helpful in this task.

So, here’s my traditional list of yester-Day’s votes:

1. Durelin for Boromir88 (Boromir 88 - 1)
2. Menel for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 1)
3. Boromir88 for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 2)
4. Nonnacedak for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 3)
5. Laitaine for Nonnacedak (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 3; Nonnacedak - 1)
6. Gurthang for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 4; Nonnacedak - 1)
7. Lalaith for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 5; Nonnacedak - 1)
8. Dancing spawn for LMP (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 5; Nonnacedak - 1; LMP - 1)
9. LMP for Nonnacedak (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 5; Nonnacedak - 2; LMP - 1)
10. SamwiseGamgee for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 2; LMP - 1)
11. Wilwarin538 for Nonnacedak (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 3; LMP - 1)
12. Arcticstorm for Durelin (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 3; LMP - 1; Durelin -1)
13. SpM for dancing spawn (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 3; LMP - 1; Durelin -1; dancing spawn - 1)

Gil-Galad did not vote. (Perhaps he thought that, by not doing so, he would divert suspicion away from himelf should he survive the Day.)

So what can we learn from this?

I would say that the following are almost certainly not Wolves, because of their early votes for Gil-Galad:

Meneltarmacil
Boromir88
Nonnacedak
Gurthang

That list happily coincides with my list of Villagers who are almost certainly not Wolves from the Mithalwen vote. SamwiseGamgee was on that list and for that reason, I believe him innocent of Werewolvery too. Nonnacedak has pointed out that he is the only Villager to have voted for a Wolf on each Day. I had noticed that too. His votes are so not the votes of a Wolf. So I hope that we will have no more nonsense about him being the Wolf.

*glares at LMP and Laitaine*

The only other person to vote for Gil-Galad was Lalaith. At the time she voted, he could still have been saved. But it was unlikely and she perhaps thought that she would be better off voting for him to given the appearance of innocence and “go it alone” as the lone Wolf. So she remains one of my suspects, but less so.

That leaves:

The Saucepan Man
Durelin
Laitaine
Dancing spawn of ungoliant
LMP

Indeed, if you look back on the previous Days’ voting, knowing now the identity of two of the Wolves, these are the Villagers whose votes look the most suspicious. Laitiane and dancing spawn have voted suspiciously each day.

Yes, I am on one of my own lists again. How bold of me! Only, I can assure you, if you are not already convinced, that I am no Wolf and I am no Bear.

I said yesterday that I do not believe that LMP is the Wolf. I did not say why. I think that perhaps I should now explain. On Day 1, as has been noted on a number of occasions, Mithalwen suggested that he might be the Seer. Her grounds for doing so were his status as a replacement of Azaelia of Willowbottom. If he was a Wolf, she would surely not have drawn attention to that issue. I had been reluctant to point this out earlier in case he was the Seer. I am now convinced that he is not. He is either the Hunter, the Cobbler or the Bear. So he should not be lynched today (assuming that you agree with me that we should be focusing on the Wolf).

In light of all that, I am now all but convinced that our remaining Wolf is one of the following:

Durelin
Laitaine
Lalaith
Dancing spawn

Let’s examine each one in detail:

Durelin: She voted against the Mithalwen bandwagon on Day 1, for a known innocent. Her early vote for me on Day 2 is less suspicious – wanting to save CaptainofDespair in case he was the ranger (as he was) is most un-Wolfish behaviour. She was top of Gil-Galad’s Day 2 suspect list (the only suspect list he ever made). She voiced suspicions of him on Day 3, but thought that he was either the Cobbler or a confused innocent (as did I). Her early vote for Boromir88, who never seemed like a potential lynch victim to me, was most un-Wolfish. She is suspicious, but least so out of my four Wolf suspects.

Laitaine: She also voted against the Mithalwen bandwagon on Day 1, again for a known innocent, and mildly defended Mithalwen at the same time (although I recognise that she would have had a better chance of saving Mithalwen had she voted for Gurthang, Firefoot or Menel). She was mildly suspicious of Gil-Galad on Day 2, but also suggested that he might simply be “deranged”. She did not vote for him, but instead voted for Durelin to put her equal on votes with Gil. In her favour, Gil-Galad did also include her on his Day 2 suspect list, but that may have been a tactic in case he was caught. Laitaine mentioned Gil-Galad (amongst others) as suspicious on Day 3, but later suggested that he seemed only to be a “bumbling fool”, rather than a Wolf. And she defended him again when voting (for Nonnacedak), suggesting that he was innocent but “rather thick”. At that time, he still only had 3 votes and might yet have been spared the noose. Indeed, Laitaine seems to have been quite dismissive of Gil’s guilt throughout – perhaps supporting his “nonchalant” behaviour. What better way to surreptitiously defend a fellow Wolf than to criticise him as an innocent fool. She is very suspicious, although she is almost certainly not the Bear (because of her vote for Alcarillo followed by his death at the Bear’s hands (paws?) the very next Night).

Lalaith: She mildly defended Mithalwen and voted against the Mithalwen bandwagon on Day 1 for another potential lynchee, but not the obvious one (Gurthang). She voiced no suspicion of Gil-Galad on Day 2 and voted for CaptainofDespair at a time when Gil-Galad could still have been lynched (although that could potentially have resulted in a double lynching). She voted for Gil-Galad on Day 3, but had not accused him at all previously, having said that he was either just being himself or was the Cobbler. Moreover, her Day 3 vote came at a time when he was looking likely to be lynched. She is still suspicious. She could be trying to hide with her vote for Gil, having decided that the Village looks kindly on those who have voted for Wolves and thinking she had a good chance of going it alone. But I suspect her less than I did.

Dancing spawn: On Day 1, she said that she thought that it was the Village’s primary aim to catch the Bear (perhaps an attempt to protect the Wolves). She could have been hiding with her vote for Mithalwen on Day 1, since Mithalwen’s fate was practically sealed. She did voice suspicions of Mithalwen when she still could have been saved, although she also said at the same time that we should not necessarily be looking at those who were most suspicious. She did voice strong suspicions of Gil on Day 2, but said she thought he might be the Cobbler. She then voted for CaptainofDespair to put him two ahead of Gil. She maintained her stance that Gil-Galad was the Cobbler on Day 3 and voted for LMP, a possible Bear (or Cobbler) but no Wolf. Her defence at #227 seemed to me to be a little over-the-top, but perhaps a Wolf would be careful to avoid displaying the same behaviour that gave Mithalwen away. Dancing spawn is still very suspicious in my eyes, but less so than Laitaine.

So my suspects for Wolf are Laitaine, dancing spawn, Lalaith and Durelin – in that order. LMP is still my prime suspect for Bear but, as I said, I think that we should focus on the Wolf today.