Smell? That is strange.
I suspect that Gandalf had an inkling that Bilbo's fate lay outside the Shire. After all, he wasn't just an outfitter for some dwarven expedition, he was an Istari, and was always thinking about the greater purpose for his presence in ME.
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"'You," he said, "tell her all. What good came to you? Do you rejoice that Maleldil became a man? Tell her of your joys, and of what profit you had when you made Maleldil and death acquainted.'" -Perelandra, by C.S. Lewis
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