[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I have the same doubts about Glirdan's guilt that are expressed by SPM, Cailin, and morm.

I am prepared to give Glirdan the benefit of the doubt for another Day. He seems too easily swayed by the opinion of others. But if he continues to flip-flop, there will come a time when he will reach the top of my suspect list.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Shelob voted for me, so naturally I'd like to suspect her (though I know there's probably no true reason to).

The only reason to suspect Shelob at the moment is that she is doing a good job of "flying under the radar" - staying active and voicing suspicions without giving too much away.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Alca voted for a candidate he figured would get jumped on by others. This might be guilty behavior- however he is showing a lot of faith in his fellow villagers to finish the job. Would a wolf be so willing to leave things to chance? I wouldn't have myself.

I find Alcarillo's vote yesterday suspicious, but I find it hard to believe that he would, on Night 2, be so bold to kill the villager who voted for him yesterday and against whom he was notoriously antagonistic.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Wilwa was the second to hop on the Bergil vote. Was she a wolf trying to put an innocent safely in the lead, or an innocent figuring we have to lynch someone, it might as well be Bergil?

To my mind she is the least suspicious of those who voted for Bergil. If Alcarillo is guilty, it's unlikely that another Wolf would have followed his vote so soon after he had cast it. If he is innocent, then a Wolf might just as likely voted for him or (more likely) added another innocent to the mix.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Wayne stepped in and voted for Alca, putting him into a tie with Bergil. Was Wayne an innocent thinking I don't want to vote for Bergil- Alca seems like a better idea, or a wolf thinking I think I should tie up the lead between two innocents?

Alcarillo was one of the leading accusers of Wayne early in the Day. I tend to think Wayne was just voting in response to that. Of course, if Alcarillo is guilty, Wayne is likely to be innocent of Wolvery.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Holby put Bergil into the lead over Kath and Anca. Was she a wolf saving one of her fellow wolf's skin, or was she an innocent that didn't want to see a triple lynching and figured Bergil was as good as anyone?

If either Alcarillo or Kath is guilty then Holby will have some serious questions to answer. With (as far as she knew) 10 votes still to go, I don't see that saving a double-lynching comes into it. But, for now, I am prepared to give her the benefit of the doubt.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Azaelia's last minute vote seems a bit odd. Why vote so late for someone who already appears to be on their way to the gallows? Was she an innocent who felt it her duty to vote, and so she, not knowing in the least who to vote for, simply tacked on her vote to the favorite of the day? Or was she a wolf and felt that her fellow wolf (Alca) was too close to the lead for comfort, and wanted to pad Bergil's total?

As I said earlier, Azaelia's last minute vote is very strange. She said that she thought the Wolves had been active during the Day and yet voted for someone who had not spoken all Day, thus sealing his fate. As the phantom has noted, with 5 votes left to cast it remained possible that other villagers would show up at the end of the Day to vote for Alcarillo (or even Kath or Glirdan, both of whom had 2 votes) so she could well have been voting to save a fellow Wolf.

And even if Alcarillo is innocent, she still remains suspicious, given that she and Gil-Galad both led the accusations against Alcarillo at the start of to-Day - which might be considered Wolfish if TGWBS's death was an attempt to set him up.

I am very wary of Azaelia.

Originally Posted by Kath

My suspicions still lie with Menel and mormegil though it is difficult to find reasons to support this.

I have few suspicions of mormegil at this stage. He seems to be genuine in his efforts to address our perilous situation. And the only basis for suspecting Menel is that he is posting frequently but contributing little. Which also applies to you, Kath. I would prefer to see a little solid reasoning behind your accusations.

Originally Posted by Folwren

TGWBS was killed last night by the wolves...why?

There are a number of reasons. He could have been killed because he was close to the truth (which would point to Alcarillo's guilt). As the phantom said, the Wolves may have thought him the Seer. Or he could have been killed to set up Alcarillo, who was the leading vote-getter yester-Day behing Bergil. Or it may simply have been because TGWBS said very little yester-Day and therefore did not leave much of a trail.

Originally Posted by Folwren

Could you please explain to me why killing TGWBS would set up Alca?

Because the only trail that TGWBS did leave points towards Alcarillo. You yourself have accused Alcarillo on the basis of TGWBS‘s death. If Alcarillo is innocent, the Wolves would have known that TGWBS‘s death would lead to such accusations against him and make him (rather than a Wolf) a likely candidate for lynching to-Day.

As an aside, it is interesting that Alcarillo was not TGWBS's Hunter target. Something obviously made him change his mind, although he unfortunately chose the wrong alternative target.

Originally Posted by mormegil

It seems as though the current thought is "kill Alcarillo, innocent or guilty, and let's find out for sure" I can see that some information could be gleened from this, but I for one loathe killing people I find innocent (i.e. Bergil).

I share your unease, particularly as, on balance, I tend to think Alcarillo innocent (of Wolvery at least). But, unless we are able identify a beast with some degree of certainty, I fear that lynching Alcarillo might be the best plan we have. He is at the centre of most theories being put forward. If he is guilty, the votes cast yester-Day become very illuminating as it is likely that at least one of his fellow Wolves was trying to save him. On the other hand, if he is innocent, then those who have been strongly accusing him to-Day will fall under suspicion on the basis that TGWBS's death was probably a set-up. And there is always a possibility that he's the Bear, although it's a long shot.

If I had to name the villager most likely to be a Wolf in my opinion, it would be Azaelia. But I am by no means certain and I am not sure how much we would learn from her death if she turns out to be innocent.