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Originally Posted by Cailín
SpM and the phantom clearly seemed allies in this game - at least to me. Sure, they did argue, but rather to edge on the rest of us (and possibly to amuse themselves a little). It was quite evident the phantom never suspected SpM and SpM was just a little on guard. So trying to frame the survivor seems incredibly far-fetched. Nobody's suspecting SpM anymore than yesterday. If it's a clever double bluff and The Saucepan Man is, in fact, a wolf, someone save us...?
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As Kath pointed out Phantom did tend to suggest that SPM is innocent. Given that he was the seer I don't think we're wrong to assume that SPM is therefore innocent.
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Originally Posted by SPM
2. It also tells us that Menel is unlikely to be a beast of any description. He was in danger of being lynched himself, something that each of our furry fiends want to avoid at all costs (moreso than an ordinary villager). To reduce that risk, his best option would have been to vote for Alcarillo and put him further ahead. Yet he did not do so. He voted for Azaelia, bringing her level with him. That seems a very non-Lycanthropic vote to me
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True, but with some holes. If Menel is a werewolf he probably would have looked at the votes (6-Alcarillo, 3-Menel) and reacted in the way one expected, by voting for Alcarillo. Self Preservation would dictate that he do that, and he would have not only the self-preservation of himself to think of but the self preservation of his fellow wolves as well. Now if Menel were the Bear self preservation would have dictated the same thing, but since it would be self preservation solely of himself it might demand he put more thought into it, it wouldn't be as much a gut-reaction as for the wolves. Even with the remaining votes the Alcarillo Bandwagon was started and it was pretty unlikely
all the people who hadn't voted would
and that they would
all vote for Menel. At that point he could have realized that a vote for Alcarillo would make him look like he was trying to save himself while a vote for someone else (even if it placed someone else in his same position, thus opening them up to take the lead) would look the next DAY like he was an innocent. So non-Lycanthropic yes, but non-wolf should not mean non-were.
Since I'm still in school I haven't been able to go over it more carefully, those two things just caught my eye.