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Chapter XIX does not help to answer Child's question, I think.
Child is clearly right that all versions of "The Quest of Erebor" were written in 1955 when Tolkien prepaired the Appendices for the "The Return of the King". Thus the idea of providence guiding Gandalf to chose Bilbo is clearly an after thought.
Also chapter XIX of the Hobbit was written long after chapter I. As fare as we know "The Hobbit" was not written in one contious efford. The story was left for a longtime unfinished ending with the death of Smaug. Thus even Gandalf talking to Bilbo about his rôle in the quest and hinting at providence as a important force is as well an after thought of Tolkien refelcting on story written years before.
Respectfully
Findegil
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