The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Welcome to Tol-in-Gauroth XI 'Fall of the Fall'

**The Saucepan Man** · 10-03-2005, 07:55 PM

OK, time for some thoughts.

Let’s look at the voting on Day 1.

It has been suggested that a Wolf probably voted for Gil. Out of those who voted for Gil, only Azaelia and Alcarillo remain alive. I do still wonder whether Gil would have been top of the Wolves “lynch list”. I suspect that they would rather have kept him around for a few Days, since he would have acted as a kind of “insurance policy” for them on a subsequent Days. That said, I certainly do not discount the possibility that a Wolf voted for Gil on Day 1.

What is more interesting about the voting on Day 1 is that it was well spread out until about half-way through the voting. With 7 Villagers attracting votes, I am sure that at least one of them was a Wolf. Those who attracted votes on Day 1 were (excluding those no longer with us):

Marcolie Lamen
Azaelia
Wilwarin
Arcticstorm
SpM

Now, when all of these Villagers (plus Perky and Gil) had one vote each, I am sure that one of the Wolves and quite possibly two will have come in to steer the voting away from the Wolf that I believe to be on that list. They will have voted for Gil, Perky or (assuming that he is not a Wolf) arcticstorm.

Wilwarin and I voted for Perky. Shelob, Perky and Alcarillo voted for Gil (but we can obviously discount Shelob and Perky). Marcolie Lamen voted for arcticstorm.

On that basis, I would conclude that one and quite probably two of the following are Wolves:

Marcolie Lamen
Azaelia
Wilwarin
Arcticstorm
Alcarillo

(Yes, I know that my reasoning also points to me, but I know that I am not a Wolf.)

It’s unlikely that both Azaelia and Alcarillo are Wolves, as I would have expected them to spread their votes between diferent Villagers.

So then we come to Day 2 voting.

Eomer launches in first with a strong attack on me. He is fierce and passionate but in my view somewhat over the top. He accuse me of having picked on him and having gone for him when, in my view, I did no such thing. This does seem a rather risky way for a Wolf to behave, but Eomer is undoubtedly one of those who could pull off such a bold move as a Wolf.

Eomer’s vote, together with Perky and articstorm having been in the frame from the precious Day’s voting (and, in arcticstorm’s case, his failure to vote), meant that there were really only ever three candidates for lynching on Day 2. That’s a shame because it means that the voting tells us less than it might otherwise. But so be it.

As I will explain later, I am currently inclined to view arcticstorm as innocent (or at least as innocent up until last Night). I know that I am. So, as far as I am concerned, the only likely candidates for lynching on Day 2 were all innocents. Therefore no need for the Wolves to put in any saving votes. They could concentrate on one or two people that they wanted to see lynched. I believe that I am one of those. Hence, I consider that at least one of those who voted for me is a Wolf, namely:

Eomer
Boromir88
Azaelia

I also believe that at least one Wolf voted for Perky. That implicates:

Wilwarin
Alcarillo
Cailin
Arcticstorm
SpM

Since I don’t believe that, at that point, either arcticstorm or Cailin were Wolves and I most certainly am not, that leaves Alcarillo and wilwarin.

Assuming, again, that the Wolves spread their votes out (and they could certainly afford to), the third Wolf would have voted for either arcticstorm or Azaelia (possibly a “safe” Wolf-on-Wolf vote). Those people are:

Mormegil
Abercrombie
Marcolie Lamen
Formendacil

So why am I inclined to believe that arcticstorm and Cailin are (or at least were) innocent? Because, if they were Wolves, I would have expected them to vote for me rather than Perky, as I picked up no indication that Perky was the Ranger and I doubt that the Wolves did either. By voting for Perky in order to save me, Cailin and arcticstorm were putting themselves in a very precarious position since, when Perky was proved innocent, they were likely to come under suspicion, even moreso as both of them had earlier expressed doubts as to Perky’s guilt. It’s possible that a Wolfish arcticstorm would have thought that a vote for Perky would be more likely to save him, but I somehow doubt that. He knew that Cailin had already voted for Perky and he knew that I was likely to. So I just don’t see Wolves acting in the way that arcticstorm and Cailin did at the end of yester-Day.

So, taking the two Days’ voting together, I believe that the three original Wolves will be found amongst the following groupings:

Either Azaelia, Boromir88 or Eomer

Either wilwarin or Alcarillo

Either mormegil or Marcolie Lamen

I have not included Formendacil or Abercrombie, as I don’t real have much of a handle on them at the moment. I do tend to think, however, that a Wolf would not have acted as Formendacil did on Day 1.

At this stage, I am finding it difficult to pinpoint it any more than that.

OK. I know what you are thinking. Sauce’s reasoning relies almost entirely on him being innocent. Well, of course it does. That’s because I am innocent silly

. But I don’t expect you to take my word for it. My reasons for setting all this out are partly to order my own thoughts and partly to assist the remaining innocents, should I either be lynched to-Day or be set upon by Wolves to-Night. Oh, and it may help other innocents to order their own thoughts, whether or not they share my conclusions.

As for wilwa’s idea that we try looking for the fourth Wolf by considering who the Wolves were likely to have attacked last Night, there may well be some merit in it. Of course, I know I was not attacked but, even if you do not take my word for it, consider whether they would have attacked someone who was likely to be in the firing line to-Day. For what it’s worth, I think that the following would have been the most likely victims (assuming that they were not already Wolves):

Mormegil
Boromir88
Cailin

Possibly Eomer too, although they may have thought that he would have come under suspicion to-Day, or that he would be useful in furthering suspicion of me.

10-03-2005, 07:55 PM	#11
The Saucepan Man Corpus Cacophonous Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: A green and pleasant land Posts: 8,390	OK, time for some thoughts. Let’s look at the voting on Day 1. It has been suggested that a Wolf probably voted for Gil. Out of those who voted for Gil, only Azaelia and Alcarillo remain alive. I do still wonder whether Gil would have been top of the Wolves “lynch list”. I suspect that they would rather have kept him around for a few Days, since he would have acted as a kind of “insurance policy” for them on a subsequent Days. That said, I certainly do not discount the possibility that a Wolf voted for Gil on Day 1. What is more interesting about the voting on Day 1 is that it was well spread out until about half-way through the voting. With 7 Villagers attracting votes, I am sure that at least one of them was a Wolf. Those who attracted votes on Day 1 were (excluding those no longer with us): Marcolie Lamen Azaelia Wilwarin Arcticstorm SpM Now, when all of these Villagers (plus Perky and Gil) had one vote each, I am sure that one of the Wolves and quite possibly two will have come in to steer the voting away from the Wolf that I believe to be on that list. They will have voted for Gil, Perky or (assuming that he is not a Wolf) arcticstorm. Wilwarin and I voted for Perky. Shelob, Perky and Alcarillo voted for Gil (but we can obviously discount Shelob and Perky). Marcolie Lamen voted for arcticstorm. On that basis, I would conclude that one and quite probably two of the following are Wolves: Marcolie Lamen Azaelia Wilwarin Arcticstorm Alcarillo (Yes, I know that my reasoning also points to me, but I know that I am not a Wolf.) It’s unlikely that both Azaelia and Alcarillo are Wolves, as I would have expected them to spread their votes between diferent Villagers. So then we come to Day 2 voting. Eomer launches in first with a strong attack on me. He is fierce and passionate but in my view somewhat over the top. He accuse me of having picked on him and having gone for him when, in my view, I did no such thing. This does seem a rather risky way for a Wolf to behave, but Eomer is undoubtedly one of those who could pull off such a bold move as a Wolf. Eomer’s vote, together with Perky and articstorm having been in the frame from the precious Day’s voting (and, in arcticstorm’s case, his failure to vote), meant that there were really only ever three candidates for lynching on Day 2. That’s a shame because it means that the voting tells us less than it might otherwise. But so be it. As I will explain later, I am currently inclined to view arcticstorm as innocent (or at least as innocent up until last Night). I know that I am. So, as far as I am concerned, the only likely candidates for lynching on Day 2 were all innocents. Therefore no need for the Wolves to put in any saving votes. They could concentrate on one or two people that they wanted to see lynched. I believe that I am one of those. Hence, I consider that at least one of those who voted for me is a Wolf, namely: Eomer Boromir88 Azaelia I also believe that at least one Wolf voted for Perky. That implicates: Wilwarin Alcarillo Cailin Arcticstorm SpM Since I don’t believe that, at that point, either arcticstorm or Cailin were Wolves and I most certainly am not, that leaves Alcarillo and wilwarin. Assuming, again, that the Wolves spread their votes out (and they could certainly afford to), the third Wolf would have voted for either arcticstorm or Azaelia (possibly a “safe” Wolf-on-Wolf vote). Those people are: Mormegil Abercrombie Marcolie Lamen Formendacil So why am I inclined to believe that arcticstorm and Cailin are (or at least were) innocent? Because, if they were Wolves, I would have expected them to vote for me rather than Perky, as I picked up no indication that Perky was the Ranger and I doubt that the Wolves did either. By voting for Perky in order to save me, Cailin and arcticstorm were putting themselves in a very precarious position since, when Perky was proved innocent, they were likely to come under suspicion, even moreso as both of them had earlier expressed doubts as to Perky’s guilt. It’s possible that a Wolfish arcticstorm would have thought that a vote for Perky would be more likely to save him, but I somehow doubt that. He knew that Cailin had already voted for Perky and he knew that I was likely to. So I just don’t see Wolves acting in the way that arcticstorm and Cailin did at the end of yester-Day. So, taking the two Days’ voting together, I believe that the three original Wolves will be found amongst the following groupings: Either Azaelia, Boromir88 or Eomer Either wilwarin or Alcarillo Either mormegil or Marcolie Lamen I have not included Formendacil or Abercrombie, as I don’t real have much of a handle on them at the moment. I do tend to think, however, that a Wolf would not have acted as Formendacil did on Day 1. At this stage, I am finding it difficult to pinpoint it any more than that. OK. I know what you are thinking. Sauce’s reasoning relies almost entirely on him being innocent. Well, of course it does. That’s because I am innocent silly . But I don’t expect you to take my word for it. My reasons for setting all this out are partly to order my own thoughts and partly to assist the remaining innocents, should I either be lynched to-Day or be set upon by Wolves to-Night. Oh, and it may help other innocents to order their own thoughts, whether or not they share my conclusions. As for wilwa’s idea that we try looking for the fourth Wolf by considering who the Wolves were likely to have attacked last Night, there may well be some merit in it. Of course, I know I was not attacked but, even if you do not take my word for it, consider whether they would have attacked someone who was likely to be in the firing line to-Day. For what it’s worth, I think that the following would have been the most likely victims (assuming that they were not already Wolves): Mormegil Boromir88 Cailin Possibly Eomer too, although they may have thought that he would have come under suspicion to-Day, or that he would be useful in furthering suspicion of me. __________________ Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind!