[The Saucepan Man]

OK. Why am I not the Cursed Wolf?

1. I took a lead role in slaying the Eomer-Wolf.

2. At the end of Day 2, there was much suspicion surrounding me. It is unlikely that the Wolves would have chosen to target someone who was a reasonable candidate for lynching on Day 3 (and who's death would have at least implicated Eomer). I am sure that Eomer felt that he would have a good chance of turning the village against me, with saubtle help from his buddies. He might have succeeded, but for Cailin having dreamed of him (something of which the Wolves were clearly unaware on Night 3, as they would have gone for her then had they been).

3. Mormegil's "theory" that Eomer and I were both Wolves, sparring with each other so as to establish the innocence of the survivor, does not hold water. As I have repeatedly explained to morm (seemingly to deaf, or more likely, Wolvish, ears), I viewed Eomer as more likely to be the innocent victim of a ploy by either Boro or Azaelia at the end of Day 2. Had I been tranformed over-Night, I would have been much more likely to stick with that approach and take the role of sacrificial Wolf myself, to Eomer's benefit.

In light of this, mormegil put a lot of effort yester-Day into trying to sow the seeds of doubt about me in the minds of the remaining innocent villagers, even though he did not end up voting for me.

Originally Posted by mormegil

I was thinking along the same lines myself. If I were guessing who would have died tonight I would have said that 3 candidates were most likely.

SpM
Eomer
Cailin

Hmm. Who's top of that list, I wonder?

Originally Posted by mormegil

Much of the reason I suspect them has already been stated so I won't repeat that but on SpM onpost 165 he is rather emphatic in his assertion that he is innocent. I believe I counted at least 4 times his expression that he is innocent, a very uncharacteristic thing for SpM to do. This makes me view him as the fourth wolf.

I explained the reasons in this regard. The reasoning set out in that post was predicated on my innocence. My innocence was therefore an integral part of the analysis.

Originally Posted by mormegil

This is highly interesting and fits perfectly into what I would expect to see from Eomer and SpM. If Eomer was an original wolf, as I suspect, and SpM is the fourth wolf, as I suspect, I had anticipated seeing both of them going at each other. This seems counterintuitive but I shall attempt to explain.

… For Eomer letting go of SpM would be too obvious and SpM giving up on Eomer would be too easy as well.

As I have already explained, I would have been far better off in such circumstances sticking with the theory that I set out at the end of Day 2.

I've noticed a change in posture of SpM that is very uncharacteristic of him and I think he's trying to adjust to his new role as a werewolf and is experiencing some growing pains.

I would be interested, morm, if you would cite some examples. To the extent that I did act any differently, it was because (following Cailin's continued strong accusation of Eomer and his attack on her) I became certain of Eomer's guilt and therefore acted accordingly.

Originally Posted by mormegil

I was wanting to know who people think the other wolves are, assuming Eomer is a wolf of course. I suspect most

Marcolie
Alcarillo
SpM

Bottom of the list now, but the only one remaining from the previous list - just so as to reinforce the suggestion.

Originally Posted by mormegil

You claimed that you found Eomer to be a patsy at the end of the day yester DAY, however the quote came from this morning. The difference being if you were the fourth wolf you would have knowledge today you didn't yesterday. Therefore you tried to change your story, but when you say it didn't work you went back to attacking Eomer.

Wrong! As I explained at the end of yester-Day, and again above.

But you see how busy mormegil was yester-Day in laying the groundwork to attack me to-Day, notwithstanding my role in Eomer's death?

Mormegil's vote yester-Day is also extremely suspicious (as is wilwa's). It was clear that either Eomer or SpM was a Wolf. Better to vote for one or the other since, even if the innocent one (ie me) had been lynched, the village would have known who to lynch to-Day. So why vote for Alcarillo, in respect of whom the evidence is circumstantial at best, and certainly no stronger than most other villagers? My guess is that two Wolves voted for Alcarillo and one voted for Eomer (it could have been one for Alcarillo and two for Eomer, but I see that as less likely).

In any event, I am pretty much certain that mormegil is the Wolf formerly known as the Cursed villager.