[Shelob]

::a quick out of game note--There is a reason for my absense, three actually 1. school, 2. chauffeur duty was thrust upon me 3. I started feeling really sick. For such reaons expect little more from me toDAY (unless, as stated later, I see myself accruing most the votes). Unless I'm really sick expect more on following days though...we now return you to your game::

1. Firefoot, I understand you accusing me... I am somewhat low on the social order of things, but I get by. I have neither need nor desire to rise above myself, esp. now I know that there are some few lower than I.

2. Estelyn Telcontar and TGWBS, voting for the silent one eh? A thousand sarcastic thanks...I should be wary of you though, voting for those who have not spoken is safe; you don't need a reason beyond their silence, they don't have a chance to defend themselves until it's too late, the vote is overlooked on later days as it gained nothing. But then again, nothing gambled nothing lost, eh? It seems to me that vote in such a way is to hide in brightest day...though, if it is then only one of you is likely guilty, for two of three wolves to vote so would all but be insanity.

3. Mormegil, wolves will likely try to save themselves whenever possible. However, should doing so risk another of their kin it is the good of the pack they'll look out for. We should remember that when we've voting records to consider. A wolf who refuses to save themself is likely saving their fellows, and through the lack of trail we may be led to the remaining beasts.

4. Current suspicions based on a somewhat rushed reading:
>Anguirel: Seems to say much without actually saying much. Post tone has something in it to suggest wolf-ish-ness. He seems (pst. 68) to be making light of the situation. HOWEVER, given that a wolf would either have to be dumb as a post or brilliant beyond all belief to pull off acting this way from the first day I'm inclined to trust that Anguirel is innocent...for now.
>TGWBS: His vote for me asside, his post (67) in which he speaks almost lightly of our situation (overdramatic "Alas, Death!", and his "weredwarf" comment) seem too, well, unconcerned for an innocent. (cf. Anguirel, though should one proove lycanthopic it would be my bet the other wasn't)

4a. That's not all, but as mentioned before I'm feeling sick...I can't actually remember who else I suspected...

5. A quick comment on likely werewolf strategies:

>Werewolves will vote so as to achieve one of four things: (A) to save themselves (B) to save another of their pack (C) to doom an innocent (D) to begin an innocents descent to doom. Because of such smart wolves can all but avoid detection, double bluff you see. An early enough vote can achieve D without actually seeming to have had a reason beyond innocent naivity. Votes to serve A and C are always looked on as suspicious, so most wolves will try to avoid voting that way unless there are others more likely to draw attention than themselves. as for B votes, their hard to spot until we've got at least one wolf down, with knowledge of who was trying to save them or of whom they tried to save it's easier to find and track votes of this sort

>Werewolves will likely kill people who aren't really gathering a lot of suspicion. Any innocent (and remember, the wolves know who are innocent) drawing enough attention away from the real wolves is worth keeping around, all the moreso if said innocent is also hitting close to home. Wolves will keep such a person around because the death of that innocent (whether by noose or by fang) will only take out a shield between the wolves and the gallows.

>Werewolves will kill so as to direct the voting away from their "class". By "class" I mean volume group, for example I would be in the "quiet" class whereas Anguirel would likely fit the "loud" class. To me there are three general classes, the Quiet, the Loud, and the Middle. Quiet wolves will try to kill in loud so as to rile up the other Loud villagers, Loud villagers will tend to accuse other Louds or those talking but not talking enough (Middle) thus drawing attention (and votes) away from the Quiet group. There comes a point for Quiet wolves though when killing Loud people becomes too dangerous, it moves the wolves up through the ranks of the Middle putting them more in the Loud's spotlights. Middle wolves will likely take out other Middles, this leaves Louds to accuse each other and Quiets for the wolves to shift blame to. Loud wolves, can likely kill whomever they please, since Louds get (or take) the most air time they are in the best positions to manipulate during the day as well as with their kills, thus Loud kills will likely be well thought out so as to appear like Middle or Quiet kills. If their pack is mixed wolves have to give it far more thought...to hide one of their member will require putting forward another

>During the day wolves will have to try and remain within their class, sudden changes (as with sudden movements) draw unwanted eyes. This means that if a non-Loud wolf is under pressure they can't do much to defend themselves. Rants are nice and even innocents may feel the need to vent their anger, but they look wolfish. If we all do our best to keep sudden long rants out of our discussions and try to defend ourselves with evidence presented from the game it makes it that much harder for wolves to hide their guilt. One can only gilt over guilt for so long.

>Since their main goal is to remain undetected wolves need to consider double, tripple and even riskier bluffs...The easiest time to do this would be this NIGHT. The right kill now and everyone will have their minds set in the wrong tracks. If their kill is a bluff and we go for it we've handed them a kill and gained all but nothing. If their kill is a bluff and we don't go for it those the bluff cast suspicion on will survive and we'll be left with unknown, untrustable elements gumming up the works. If it's not a bluff we'll certainly take it as one and either of the before described situations shall apply.

6. Having said all that, I fully expect to be alive tomorrow. Right now I'm likely gathering enough suspicion to detract from the wolves, so they won't kill me. This would tend to suggest that I'll draw even more suspicion tomorrow and be stand a good chance of being lynched then. However, there's enough of a chance that I could also be a thorn in the wolves side, this being the case they'd want me killed...Since killing me in the night would detract from their list of shields tomorrow it's more than likely that one wolf (at least) would support my lynching upon the morrow. That way they get two kills for the price of one, a NIGHT kill where they can send suspicion where they please and my DAY death where they'd thin our innocent ranks. Furthermore, should this be the case, it's likely that one wolf (at least) shall defend me...not enough to really be connected to me, but enough to keep me around another DAY, the longer I remain an unknown, untrustable element the better off for them.

7. With 6 in mind I suggest you lynch me now, you'll do no worse than you likely could on the first day anyway, you'll remove a potentially dangerous element from tomorrow's proceedings and (in my death) you'll see my words clearly for what they are, an attempt to help. Should I see myself getting a good majority of votes I'll wrack my mind for any further help and post it.

With that I think I'll vote

++Anguirel

mostly because of my assorted and disconnected suspcicions he stands out the most.

Until Then.