The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth

Estelyn Telcontar · 10-26-2005, 01:11 AM

I'm sad that our choices had such a devastating outcome! Instead of the wolf, two innocents died, and now mormegil has been killed as well. I spent much of the past Night pondering our possibilities. Fortunately, it has not come to the worst, which would have been the transformation of a cursed villager into a werewolf.

What we need to do now is to plan a strategy that will give us the best chances of killing the last wolf. Here are the choices and their possible outcomes:

1. We lynch one person, it's the wolf, game over, three villagers survive, villagers win.

2. We lynch one person, it's an innocent, the wolf kills another in the coming Night, two survive, one of them is the wolf, wolves win.

3. We double lynch the two most suspicious villagers, thereby increasing our chances of getting the wolf; either we succeed and the villagers win, with two surviving, or we miss the wolf and lose.

I think the last choice is the best. It gives us the best chance of lynching a wolf. Whatever we do, the game is over by Night at the latest, more likely toDay.

I still think my list of suspects is valid; I had Enca pegged as the most suspicious and Fea as the next (50-50), with Underhill and myself as innocents. I know one of you young ladies is innocent, but it can't be helped - will you be willing to die for the best of the village? If not, you are definitely making yourself appear even more suspicious!

I ask Fea and Enca not to vote for themselves - phantom got it right, I think the suicidal votes are stupid, and all of them have gone wrong in this game. But I ask each of you to vote for the other one, then Underhill and I can finish by tieing the votes for a double lynching.

I know I'm coming out early with this suggestion, but as I consider it the very best possibility for the villagers to win, I offer it to you all. Unfortunately, I will be away for several hours this afternoon and evening, and I know Enca won't be able to defend herself until later, but I shall do my very best to make up for lost time before and after my absence.

I'm not sure how much a lot of analysis will help us - we've done so much of that! But we can go back and at least honour Boromir, tgwbs, and mormegil by attempting to pick up clues from their contributions.

If either Enca or Fea votes for Underhill or myself, she is most likely to be the wolf, and I would suggest concentrating all following votes on her!

PS - I will definitely by voting late this very last Day of the game! As I did on the previous Day, I will be up early in my time zone to discuss the possibilities with the rest of you and to cast my crucial vote just before the deadline.

PPS - I just reread morm's last post, in which he suggests this very same tactic. Since the dead are always right and always good

that means we should definitely do it!

10-26-2005, 01:11 AM	#4
Estelyn Telcontar Princess of Skwerlz Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: where the Sea is eastwards (WtR: 6060 miles) Posts: 7,500	I'm sad that our choices had such a devastating outcome! Instead of the wolf, two innocents died, and now mormegil has been killed as well. I spent much of the past Night pondering our possibilities. Fortunately, it has not come to the worst, which would have been the transformation of a cursed villager into a werewolf. What we need to do now is to plan a strategy that will give us the best chances of killing the last wolf. Here are the choices and their possible outcomes: 1. We lynch one person, it's the wolf, game over, three villagers survive, villagers win. 2. We lynch one person, it's an innocent, the wolf kills another in the coming Night, two survive, one of them is the wolf, wolves win. 3. We double lynch the two most suspicious villagers, thereby increasing our chances of getting the wolf; either we succeed and the villagers win, with two surviving, or we miss the wolf and lose. I think the last choice is the best. It gives us the best chance of lynching a wolf. Whatever we do, the game is over by Night at the latest, more likely toDay. I still think my list of suspects is valid; I had Enca pegged as the most suspicious and Fea as the next (50-50), with Underhill and myself as innocents. I know one of you young ladies is innocent, but it can't be helped - will you be willing to die for the best of the village? If not, you are definitely making yourself appear even more suspicious! I ask Fea and Enca not to vote for themselves - phantom got it right, I think the suicidal votes are stupid, and all of them have gone wrong in this game. But I ask each of you to vote for the other one, then Underhill and I can finish by tieing the votes for a double lynching. I know I'm coming out early with this suggestion, but as I consider it the very best possibility for the villagers to win, I offer it to you all. Unfortunately, I will be away for several hours this afternoon and evening, and I know Enca won't be able to defend herself until later, but I shall do my very best to make up for lost time before and after my absence. I'm not sure how much a lot of analysis will help us - we've done so much of that! But we can go back and at least honour Boromir, tgwbs, and mormegil by attempting to pick up clues from their contributions. If either Enca or Fea votes for Underhill or myself, she is most likely to be the wolf, and I would suggest concentrating all following votes on her! PS - I will definitely by voting late this very last Day of the game! As I did on the previous Day, I will be up early in my time zone to discuss the possibilities with the rest of you and to cast my crucial vote just before the deadline. PPS - I just reread morm's last post, in which he suggests this very same tactic. Since the dead are always right and always good that means we should definitely do it! __________________ 'Mercy!' cried Gandalf. 'If the giving of information is to be the cure of your inquisitiveness, I shall spend all the rest of my days in answering you. What more do you want to know?' 'The whole history of Middle-earth...' Last edited by Estelyn Telcontar; 10-26-2005 at 01:20 AM.