[Eonwe]

Gollum wouldn't have gone out looking for Bilbo. Sauron would never have learned the names Shire, and Baggins. Or at least not until much later. I think it says somewhere that he had to speed up his plans a great deal when he learned that the Ring had been found (the chief purpose of the attack on Osgiliath was to present the Ringwraiths as captains of the war, instead of scouts for the Ring.) This could be good and bad, because as Gandalf (I think) says, "oft the hasty stroke goes amiss." Anyway, Gollum would certainly come off looking much better than the pitieable wrech he is in LOTR.