Verrrrry interesting notions, friends! Glad I asked.
Here's my thought: the orcs did attack, and yes, as burrahobbit says, Boromir still did try to take the Ring from Frodo. Those things I'm not taking away for the sake of the speculation. And since the orcs attacked and Boromir fought them, I'm not taking away his death. I agree that everybody who was left would have gone with Frodo and Sam - but not by means of the Dead Marshes. I think that Aragorn would have led them downriver, which while still dangerous was no more so than any other way, and much quicker - especially below the Rauros Falls.
Still, where would Aragorn have taken them in hopes of entering Mordor? Certainly not to the Gates of Morannon; he knew better. Surely he didn't know of Cirith Ungol, either. Nor were the mountains passable, as far as I can recall from Tolkien's descriptions and the maps (which don't tell a whole lot about passability, granted). My guess is that Aragorn would consider the woods of Ithilien to be relatively safer than the River, and they would have left the boats as soon as they had gotten as far as Ithilien.
Now, even though Faramir would not have been as far north as Henneth Annun (good point), he still would have been somewhere in Ithilien. Aragorn may have known of Henneth Annun, maybe not. I don't think he would have stopped there in any case. Aragorn may or may not have been aware of Faramir's presence in Ithilien, but if he had to pass through Ithilien, my guess is that he would have picked up on the presence of Gondorian scouts by means of his Ranger skills. Looking for them, I think he would have eventually found them - probably not at Henneth Annun, though.
Phrim, you make a good point that Aragorn was committed to the cause of the Ring; but he was just as strongly compelled by his "doom" and the prophecies about him. He would have had a very difficult wrestle with himself, the closer he got to Minas Tirith. Perhaps you guess the best that he would have remained true to the quest, but not, I believe, without misgiving.
Having no clear idea of how to get into Mordor, I don't know WHAT Tolkien would have come up with, but I offer one (highly speculative) possibility: Gollum is still following the Ring in this scenario, and at SOME point I can imagine the depleted Fellowship capturing him. He could still come under the domination of Frodo - who in terms of the Ring would not be faring any better than Tolkien wrote. Due to the presence of the Elf and Dwarf and Man, Gollum probably would never have come out of his shell, he still might have communicated Cirith Ungol with hopes of Shelob taking them ALL out and leaving him the Ring.
Meanwhile, Gandalf, still knowing all the things that had to be done, all the forces that needed to be marshalled, could still have mobilized Treebeard and the Ents, and Theoden and the Rohirrim, without the help of the hobbits and Aragorn and company. It's just that it made better story to have them where they were, I'd say.
Still, Gandalf still would have gotten the Palantir with Saruman still defeated by the Ents and the Huorns and the Rohirrim combined - Aragorn, Legolas and Gimli didn't make THAT much of a difference in the whole scope of that part of the War. But Gandalf would have ridden hard to Minas Tirith with a Palantir in his possession.
That's how it looks to me in this highly speculative set-up. Thoughts?
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