heres a thought:
im pretty sure we can win now, without even looking at suspicion. just by lynching those not porven innocent.
Ang
Eonwe
Firefoot
Hunter
these are all known innocent
that leaves three people of unkonwn alliagence
we kill one today. (4,2)
wolf kills one at night (3,2)
we kill one tomarrow (3,1)
wolf kills one tomarrow night (2,1)
we kill whoever is left in the morning (2,0)
unless wilwa screwed something up (which is highly doubtable) we are set to win.
if the hunter shows up.
im still betting on tar-a being a wolf.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by tar-a
A revealed Hunter is an obvious target for our remaining wolf, and as soon as possible: the wolf would likely try to take the Hunter down while the pool of suspects is as large as possible to lessen the probability of being the Hunter's target. The longer the Hunter stays anonymous, though, the less-appealing of a target s/he makes because of the increased likelihood of the wolf's going down too.
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not so. the more i look at it, the more i see that the hunter must come out:
if we lynch the wolf today, game over, none of this matters.
if we kill and inncoent, taht would leave us with (3, hunter vs. 2 unknown)
if the wolf kills the hunter, there are two possiblilities:
1. hunter kills an inncoent (3, 1 {who we will know must be the wolf})
2. hunter kills teh wolf (game over)
if teh wolf goes for anyother known innocent, it will play out as i expained earlier.
so the wolf cannot get at the hunter, because it will leave him by himself, or dead.
i don't see how we can lose, but it would be nice to get to the bottom by logic, not rote (sp?) lynching. and it think tar-a is due for the most suspicion.