[the phantom]

There is one more round of games left. Let's look at who is playing and what the possible outcomes are.

Mordor versus Moria

This game does not matter. Both Mordor and Moria are advancing.

In these sort of situations some teams rest key players. Other teams prefer to play all out and go for bragging rights. I expect Moria, the weaker team, to rest all of their best players in hopes of making a solid run in the next round. Mordor will also let lots of non-starters play, but they will probably rotate the Nazgul in a few at a time just for practice. The Nazgul don't really get worn out and are not prone to injury the way normal beings are, so there isn't much of a need to rest them.

So, given this, I predict a meaningless win for Mordor. If Moria puts out a particularly weak line, look for The Dark Lord to jump into the game and score a quick goal. He is always ready to pad his stats. And trust that if he hops in quick for something like that, he will be extra careful not to get a card. That happened to him once and he learned his lesson. In addition, there isn't an orc in Moria that can injure Sauron even if he tried, so there's no danger of that happening.

Mordor wins.

Rivendell versus Arnor

Whoever wins this game will advance. If they tie, Arnor will advance.

But there's not going to be a tie.

It turns out my sources were telling the truth- Rivendell was indeed drugged before the tournament. Elrond inspected all of their water jugs and such they had brought on the trip, and every one of them had been compromised. But now that the problem has been taken care of, look for Rivendell to return to their usual form- very good.

The great Elven knights Elladen, Elrohir, and Glorfindel will score goals, and Elrond will stop Arnor from scoring. Rivendell has never failed to advance to the round of 16 before, and they won't fail now.

Rivendell wins.

Valmar versus Woodhall

This game does not matter. The Barrow-Downs and Valimar have already advanced (I assume, Sleepy, that since Valimar beat Valmar in the end of the game shootout that they own the tie-breaker over Valmar should both end up with four points).

Will Valmar and Woodhall try to win for pride's sake, or will they both be apathetic and depressed knowing that they're already going home? I don't know, and I won't try to guess, but I think I'll have to pick Valmar to win just because of their superior talent.

Valmar wins.

Mirkwood versus Ephel Brandir

The winner of this game will advance. Should they tie, Mirkwood will advance.

I'm not sure who to pick in this one. They are fairly evenly matched. However, Mirkwood is prone to mental breakdowns. Last year Mirkwood's goalie, Galion the butler, chose to drink strong wine at halftime instead of water, which resulted in him allowing fourteen balls to roll through the door during the second half. Did he learn his lesson? Probably so, but I'm still not sure Mirkwood can win. Then again, I can't see Ephel Brandir winning it either. Their players can kick hard but aren't very accurate, which is why everyone calls them "the clubfooted team".

I think this one ends in a draw.

Belegost versus Bree

The winner of this match advances. If they tie, Belegost will advance.

Bree is missing Barliman and Ferny. Barliman is a leader on the field, and Ferny, though a trouble maker, is a fine athlete. I don't think Bree can overcome being without those two players. Even with them I would probably take Belegost.

Belegost wins.

Tol-In-Gaurhoth versus Doriath

This game is meaningless. Both teams have already qualified.

So, what will these teams do? Rest their best players? Go all out and try to remain undefeated?

If the teams rest their players, look for Tol-In-Gaurhoth to slaughter Doriath. There is considerable drop-off from Beleg-Mablung-Thingol-Saeros-Melian down to the second line. Gaurhoth's drop is not that extreme. Sauron, Draugluin, and Thuringwethil are certainly Gaurhoth's top players, but after those three there is almost no difference whatsoever between the next 30 players. So, if both teams rest, Gaurhoth will win. Their defense is extremely good, so Doriath won't score, and I can see them putting two goals or three past Doriath's second and third liners.

If both teams play full strength, I will still pick Gaurhoth, but in a closer contest. Despite Gaurhoth's tough D, Doriath has an exceptional offense and will put up a goal or two, but Doriath's comparably weaker defense will allow Gaurhoth to score at least two goals between Drauglin's craftiness, Thuringwethil's quickness and aerial abilities, and Sauron's typical off-the-charts play.

Tol-In-Gaurhoth wins.

Fangorn versus Crickhollow

If Fangorn wins then Fangorn and Alqualonde advance.

If they tie then Fangorn and Alqualonde advance.

If Crickhollow wins then they will advance, but I'm not sure who will advance with them- Fangorn or Alqualonde. They tied in their head to head match up and I don't remember seeing anything about an end of the game shootout so I don't know who owns the tie-breaker between the two.

This game all depends on Fangorn. If they show up looking Entish, then go with them. If they show up looking treeish, pick Crickhollow. I personally think they'll be someplace between the two, and no one will score resulting in a tie.

Fangorn and Crickhollow tie. Fangorn advances.

Gondolin versus Angband

Whoever wins this match will advance.

It's really unfortunate that one of these teams has to be eliminated. They are both top-ten teams and I would've liked to see both of them in the next round. But alas, in a strong group someone must go before their time, and that someone is Gondolin.

Gondolin is a crowd favorite and certainly a good team, but they simply do not stack up against Angband. Gondolin has one of the best offenses in the tournament, but Angband has the best defense by far. Their Balrog defenders will neutralize Gondolin's attack. They will not score more than one goal, despite their talent.

Angband, on the other hand, will score more than once. Gondolin's defense is simply not up to the challenge of facing a very motivated Ancalagon and Gothmog.

Angband wins.

Tomorrow I will give my take on the next round.