The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIV: Nyárë Nauroron Númenoreva

Fordim Hedgethistle · 12-04-2005, 09:18 PM

I may be naught but a lithesome pearl diver, but even I'm a bit suspicious of the person who would cast the first vote so early in the day! Why, poor Alcarillo's body's still warm and there's Gurthang champing at the bit for more blood already! And he's after one as hasn't even spoken up yet!!

That having been said, it's true that there's precious little to go by on this first day other than paranoia, so in the end I suspect I'll have to cast my vote in pretty much the same way -- with a lot of guesswork and hope. The likelihood of catching a Wolf this day is only 3 in 14 and I don't like those odds.

So it's like the adage says: him as wants to catch a werewolf needs luck or patience....and so since I don't believe in luck....

So how to catch a werewolf? Well, it's mighty tricky and that's for sure as they have that one great advantage as we don't: they know who's human and who isn't. The thing we have to do (and by we I mean us innocents) is to turn that advantage against them. Y'see, when it comes to voting time, everyone casts his or her vote as an individual -- cause, when it comes down to it, the only person you can really know is innocent is yourself. But wolves, y'see, when they vote, they vote as a group. Even if they spread their votes around, they're still going to be spreading those votes around as a group. So the trick here, y'see, is not to focus on individual choices or actions, but on groups of people who seem to be acting more or less alike, or groups of people who are acting different from one another consistently.

So, as I see it, if you try and catch a werewolf, you're doomed. But if you try to catch a group of three werewolves you might just stand a chance.

The first step, then, is to figure out what the groups are in this here village. The second step, is to decide which group it is that's acting the most wolfish and to vote to lynch from within that group. So it's with that in mind that I shall be watching for these kinds of patterns and groupings. So far, early as it is, there's at least one clearly defined group...

The Accusatory:

Sauce
Rune
Boro
Gurthang

...and possibly two...

The Visibly Non-Committal:

Wilwarin
Aiwendil
Wayne

So this is what's I know right now --

The Accusers are drawing a lot of attention to themselves and making a lot of noise, so they are either clumsy innocents or daring wolves.

The VCNs are shadowing the Accusers without going all the way, so they are either nervous innocents or cagey wolves.

In all fairness I suppose I should probably put myself in a group as well...

Self-Appointed Saviours:

Fordim

The SAS is drawing a lot of attention to himself by suggesting a strategy that will only work if lots of people believe it and go along with him, so he is either a daring innocent or an arrogant wolf.

12-04-2005, 09:18 PM	#13
Fordim Hedgethistle Gibbering Gibbet Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Beyond cloud nine Posts: 1,844	I may be naught but a lithesome pearl diver, but even I'm a bit suspicious of the person who would cast the first vote so early in the day! Why, poor Alcarillo's body's still warm and there's Gurthang champing at the bit for more blood already! And he's after one as hasn't even spoken up yet!! That having been said, it's true that there's precious little to go by on this first day other than paranoia, so in the end I suspect I'll have to cast my vote in pretty much the same way -- with a lot of guesswork and hope. The likelihood of catching a Wolf this day is only 3 in 14 and I don't like those odds. So it's like the adage says: him as wants to catch a werewolf needs luck or patience....and so since I don't believe in luck.... So how to catch a werewolf? Well, it's mighty tricky and that's for sure as they have that one great advantage as we don't: they know who's human and who isn't. The thing we have to do (and by we I mean us innocents) is to turn that advantage against them. Y'see, when it comes to voting time, everyone casts his or her vote as an individual -- cause, when it comes down to it, the only person you can really know is innocent is yourself. But wolves, y'see, when they vote, they vote as a group. Even if they spread their votes around, they're still going to be spreading those votes around as a group. So the trick here, y'see, is not to focus on individual choices or actions, but on groups of people who seem to be acting more or less alike, or groups of people who are acting different from one another consistently. So, as I see it, if you try and catch a werewolf, you're doomed. But if you try to catch a group of three werewolves you might just stand a chance. The first step, then, is to figure out what the groups are in this here village. The second step, is to decide which group it is that's acting the most wolfish and to vote to lynch from within that group. So it's with that in mind that I shall be watching for these kinds of patterns and groupings. So far, early as it is, there's at least one clearly defined group... The Accusatory: Sauce Rune Boro Gurthang ...and possibly two... The Visibly Non-Committal: Wilwarin Aiwendil Wayne So this is what's I know right now -- The Accusers are drawing a lot of attention to themselves and making a lot of noise, so they are either clumsy innocents or daring wolves. The VCNs are shadowing the Accusers without going all the way, so they are either nervous innocents or cagey wolves. In all fairness I suppose I should probably put myself in a group as well... Self-Appointed Saviours: Fordim The SAS is drawing a lot of attention to himself by suggesting a strategy that will only work if lots of people believe it and go along with him, so he is either a daring innocent or an arrogant wolf. __________________ Scribbling scrabbling.