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Originally Posted by Fordim Hedgethistle
With all due respect to our esteemed retired tutor and harbourmaster, but a double-lynching is never anything but a terrible idea ...
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I can see as ye ain't a gambler, me Operatic Oyster Opening friend. I'm with Aiwendil on this one. 'Ad Rune turned out to be a Wolf and Guthang the Cobbler, as a nummer 'ere suspected, we'd all be throwin' a party right now and there's be no mutterin' 'bout double lynchings bein' a bad thing. On the basis of me suspicions at that time, I thought Master Morm made a good call, and I ain't a goin' back on that now.
Does that mean I reckon Mormegil to be innocent? No it don't. On the one hand, it would take a bold Wolf to make such a suspicious (as it turned out) move. But on't other, I don't doubt it's sommet a Wolfish Morm might think as 'e could pull off knowin' that the likes of me might regard it as too "obviously suspicious" for a Wolf.
As for the remainin' votes, I don't reckon that they are as useful as yesterday's, bein' as so many voted for the two that were lynched.
Voted for either Rune or Gurthang: SpM, Fordim, B88, Formendacil, Aiwendil, Mormegil
Voted for another: Lhunadarwen, Kath
Did not vote: Holbytlass, Wayne
Now 'ere be a nummer of things to muse over like. Did a Wolf vote for either Rune or Gurthang? Did a Wolf vote for another? Did a Wolf not vote?
The odds, and plain common sense, lead me to think that at least one Wolf voted for either Gurthang or Wayne. Which troubles me as they all be people who I 'ad previously reckoned likely to be innocent. Me current thinkin' is that one Wolf voted for either Rune or Gurthang and the other either voted for another or did not vote. It would be quite risky for a Wolf not to vote, but I wouldn't put anythin' past that young Wayne. Seems to me as 'e ain't a great one for strategies and the like, but just does whatever seems right to 'im at the time.
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Originally Posted by Aiwendil
But I'm also interested in any constructive criticism anyone might have - what other variables could be considered?
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Well, yer system be fine as far as it goes, Master Aiwendil. But I reckon that it be of little use until we 'ave a few day's votin' under our belts. That's plain to me from the fact that it rates me so highly. See, I reckon our lynchin' of Spawn was a bit of a lucky strike. Most times, in such a situation, the village would 'ave lynched two innocents and no Wolves at this point. The fact we bagged a Wolf on the first day rather skews the system early on, d'you see, by favourin' those as voted for 'er too highly. Over time, though, it will even out more.
Not sayin' it's no use. But I think we need a few more days afore we start thinkin' of usin' it to guide our votes.
As for other variables, you need to look at when people voted and the state of the votes at that point. You take some account of this at yer point 1, but there are other factoes - whether people created or broke ties, whether they might 'ave been votin' to save a fellow Wolf and the like. You should also bear in mind that Wolves may well quite willin' to sacrifice one of their nummer (particularly early on) to gain credibility like. And you need to take account of the Cobbler, though Gawd knows 'ow you might do that.
Finally, seems to me yer system accords to much weight to votes alone. Votin' is one of the most useful ways of spottin' a Wolf, I accept. But there are other ways, based on people's behaviour and what they say durin' the day. Though, again, that's awful difficult to take account of, bein' as Wolves will act in different ways dependin' on the circumstances and are quite capable of behavin' in a manner as makes 'em look pure as the driven snow.
Which brings me to me final point fer now. The deaths of Rune and particularly Gurthang, and the fact that Wilwa turned out to be innocent, show the dangers of concentratin' on those as are generally reckoned to be actin' suspiciously. While that was the basis for me stickin' up for Wilwa yesterday, I still made a mistake by focussin' too much on Gurthang an' Rune. They were actin' suspiciously to my mind, an' others seemed to see it the same way. So they 'ad to be guilty, or at least one of them did, right? Wrong. Mayhaps our experience should tell us that those most likely to be Wolves are those as are conspicuously avoidin' doin' anythin' which might make them seem suspicious.