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Mormegil began to draw my attention when my (admittedly somewhat baroque and haphazard) numerical method found him the most suspicious. Allow me to analyze some of his more important behaviour.
1. DAY 1: Finds my suggestions for the Seer contradictory.
If he is innocent: This is a very reasonable thing to say (though, I think, not true).
If he is a wolf: This is a move that keeps his options open. He is now in a position to go after me, should popular opinion swing that way; but he has committed to nothing.
If he is the cobbler: Seems a reasonable thing to say.
2. DAY 1: Backs off of his attack on my Seer suggestion; finds my suspicion of Spawn and Gurthang reasonable, but suspects Gurthang more, and votes for him.
If innocent: Nothing here directly contradicts his earlier suggestion that the idea was contradictory. He simply made the wrong choice between Spawn and Gurthang.
If a wolf: Seeing that no anti-Aiwendil coalition is forming, he changes tactics and latches onto my analysis, but tries subtly to steer suspicion away from a known wolf and toward a known innocent.
If the cobbler: It seems to me a little unlikely that the cobbler would vote for Gurthang, who was acting so very cobbler-ish.
3. DAY 1: Comments that the number of votes for Formendacil is strange.
If innocent: Like me, he thought it strange that so many would vote against someone who had so far done nothing suspicious. Very reasonable.
If a wolf: Knowing that all three of the people who voted for Formendacil were innocent, he begins to set things up to go after those people on DAY 2. A shrewd and very effective tactic.
If the cobbler: His comment seems more helpful than I would expect the cobbler to be. Remember that if he's the cobbler, then he did not know at this point that the three who voted against Formendacil were innocent.
4. DAY 2: Reviews Jack's posts and points to clues that he was the Seer.
If innocent: He has spent some time searching Jack's posts for clues and has uncovered some. This is not particularly helpful at this point.
If a wolf: He has already found those hints and is merely pointing them out. Note that if the wolves knew Jack was the Seer, then someone who notices the clues is more likely to be a wolf than someone who does not.
If the cobbler: I'm not sure why the cobbler would spend much time going over the Seer's posts for clues at this point.
5. DAY 2: Suspects Wilwarin.
If innocent: Wrong but reasonable.
If a wolf: He is carrying through on his plan from the previous DAY - i.e. going after the anti-Formendacil group, all of whom are known innocents. A fairly safe but potentially very rewarding move for a wolf.
If the cobbler: Perhaps, like The Saucepan Man, he thought Wilwarin's vote was too obvious for a wolf - and, suspecting that she's innocent, he goes after her.
6. DAY 2: Proposes a "short list" plan.
If innocent: He really thinks the plan could put pressure on the wolves. It seems to me that the plan is not likely to be particularly helpful, so if he is innocent then we must assume he failed to consider the plan carefully.
If a wolf: Two of the three he lists are known innocents. If Formendacil is innocent then he is trying to ensure that no wolves are killed on DAY 2. If Formendacil is a wolf, then he is betting that the other candidates will receive more votes.
If the cobbler: He is trying to confuse things by throwing a new element into the conversation.
7. DAY 2: Creates a double lynch by voting for Rune
If innocent: He thought that either Rune or Gurthang was guilty; he gambled and lost.
If a wolf: He saw a chance to eliminate two innocents while remaining fairly safe - since he was not alone in suspecting both of them.
If the cobbler: It seems unlikely that the cobbler would create a double lynch of two that were so suspicious.
Where does that leave us? Each of his actions is reasonable for an innocent. But each of his actions seems very reasonable for a wolf. I am not sure whether we should lynch him today. The others that seem suspicious to me at this point are Kath and Lhunardawen, who have been quiet enough to escape much notice and have made very "safe" votes so far - with the possible exception of Lhuna's most recent vote for Mormegil.
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