[Aiwendil]

I know Ive been rathuh talkative today

Being talkative is good, as I see it. The more we talk, the more evidence we have at our disposal. Silence only helps the Wolves.

even wi' the fallure of the las' two days, the wulves dun got a lot of wiggle room. But right now the advantage is 6-2, and they jus' dun cant afford to throw themselfs out and refute the real gifteds claim as that would give 'em away.

Now here I have to disagree. The Wolves are rather close to winning. It's 6-2 but one of those six is the Cobbler. If we (Eru forbid) lynch an innocent toDAY, the Wolves will kill an innocent toNIGHT, and it'll be 3 innocents vs. 2 wolves and a Cobbler.

I expect that no one else cares about my numerical attempt at analyzing voting patterns, but it might illuminate my thought process a little bit. Here are the results I get, starting with a score of 5 for everyone and assigning one point for voting for a known innocent and subtracting two points for voting for a known wolf.

Aiwendil: 5
Boromir88: 5
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant: 5 (6)
Fordim Hedgethistle: 5
Formendacil : 4
Gurthang: 6
Holbytlass: 6 (7)
Jack: 5
Kath: 6
Lhunardawen: 6
Rune Son of Bjarne: 7
Mormegil: 8
The Saucepan Man: 8
WaynetheGoblin: 5 (6)
Wilwarin538: 6

The numbers in parentheses are from my perspective - i.e. counting myself as a known innocent.

Now, it's obvious right away that this is not a reliable guide - two known innocents have rather high scores. But I think there are two things worth noting:

1. Formendacil has voted rather like an innocent - more so than anyone else.

2. Mormegil has voted like a Wolf. Maybe he's innocent - he very well could be. Maybe he's the Cobbler. Whatever the case, he seems, on the whole, to have done more good for the Wolves than for the villagers.

So for now, I'm considering Formendacil rather unlkely to be a wolf, but Mormegil is one of my chief suspects.

However - I also agree Boromir and Mormegil that Lhuna and Kath are good candidates for lynching today. They have both been fairly quiet, much to their advantage. And, as has been observed, they have both made rather "safe" votes.