[Formendacil]

Fordhim the Cobbler?

Interesting theory....

But I find one thing... wrong... about it, if I may say so. If Fordhim were the Cobbler, wouldn't he be making MORE noise? We're at, what, two posts in two days? Sick cousins or no, Fordhim has not been up to his usual, vocal, standards this game, even before the last couple days.

Of course, that COULD be a Cobbler tactic, since, as it is quite different from his usual style, it is confusing the heck out of us.

Now, if I understand this analysis plan of Morm's aright, he wants me to analyse Holbytlass. Well, I agree with the plan- it could turn up some good stuff. I am somewhat bemused that it is Morm who is proposing it, since it follows so completely with my stated opinion yesterday that he is playing a perfectly Morm-normal game...

Okay, on to Holbytlass...

Holby has been on the quieter side thus far this game- making my job a bit easier. DAY1 started for her with Post #26. In this, she proposes the absurd theory that we look at anyone animal related, that being Boromir, Fordhim, Lhuna, Jack, and herself, Holbytlass. A pretty much typical, nonsensical post for Day 1.

Holby's next post, also on DAY1, is Post #55. She reaffirms the assumption that her last post was a bit silly, and accuses Jack and Boromir of taking a conversation-starter too hard.

Her next post follows right after the last, Post #56. In it, she decides to vote "with her gut" (does this mean she was hungry?) and says that Jack has been too jumpy. She votes for Jack.

DAY2 dawns, and Holby's first post, #78, is fairly short. In it, she wonders at Jack having been the Seer, and at Gurthang's claim of the same title. She asks Gurthang to explain himself.

Also on DAY2, Post #92 is the first in which Holby declares herself suspicious of Aiwendil. She points out what could possibly have been collusion between Aiwendil and Dancing Spawn, and notes how Aiwendil has subtly been steering attention away from himself.

Later in DAY2, Post #106, Holby responds to Gurthang's defense of his actions, and refutes them, not believing them. She finishes with saying that her top suspects remain Aiwendil and Gurthang.

Three posts later, Post #109, Holby again responds to Gurthang's self-defense, with the same response. She also replies to Fordhim's lynch plan of the post above, with an affirmative outlook.

Holby's next post is a short one, Post #113, in which she reminds the village that voting patterns aren't usually discovered until after a period of days.

Two posts later, Post #115, Holby makes nearly exactly the same statement as Post #113, with the main difference being that this was now phrased as an official dismissal of Morm's village lynch plan.

Holby misses voting on DAY2 due to a child's injury.

Holby returns on DAY3, over a page later, with Post #166. She apologizes for missing the voting, and says that she would have voted for Gurthang, had she been present. She declares that Wilwa's death was an odd choice for the Wolves to make. Holby then goes on to say that wolf killing wolf is normal, if it saves a wolf's life, to refute Aiwendil's point- and she points out that, if Aiwendil is a wolf, this would fit his scenario. She also says that she is highly suspicious of his cautiousness.

Holby resurfaces later in DAY3, Post #194, where she agrees that she could have been Jack's last dream, because of his suspicions of her, and wishes that he had lived, so that he could declare her innocence. She goes on to say that she thinks Wayne innocent, and that Aiwendil is more suspicious. She finishes the post by casting her vote for Aiwendil.

Holby makes her first post of DAY4, Post #218, by saying that she was right, and Wayne wasn't bluffing. She responds to Morm's plan by saying that only the Hunter should reveal himself, and that Ranger should remain hidden.

Holby posts right after, with Post #219, with the voting record normally prepared by SPM. She includes, as an addendum, that she doesn't think Kath guilty on account of her quietness, thinking her even more quiet than usual.

Later, Post #228, Holby does an analysis of everybody's voting record, that is little more than a factual recitation of the record. Her ultimate analysis ends with declaring Aiwendil and Boromir her main suspects.

That's the record as it stands as I end this post...

Overall, there is nothing glaringly Wolfish about Holby, but that seems to be a trait that plagues this entire village. Her early record of voting for the seer, Jack is perhaps the most indicting part of her record, but happening as it did on DAY1, I am not inclined to make any accusations based on that alone. Her continuing suspicion of Aiwendil could be what makes or breaks her. It would almost be interesting to lynch him to see the effect on Holby.

If Aiwendil is a wolf, it would mean that either the two of them have been playing a major double bluff, or else that Holby has picked up on what the rest of us have missed. If Aiwendil is innocent, I would really bet that Holby is a wolf- although she could statistically just as easily be a misguided innocent.

Overally, I'm not inclined to think Holby guilty. However, I don't see her as a cleared-by-the-courts innocent, and I would leave her in the "neutral" category.