It is nice to see some analyses coming in, though it seems like we won’t get them all. I will do my analysis of Aiwnedil, who has posted the most so far.
DAY 1
Post 5—Is a trifle bit incensed at the horrible pronunciation and spelling of words and vows to help our village out.
Post 15—Explains why he is visibly non-committal. Also gives his advice to the seer, you all remember it.
Post 17—Clarifies my assertion that his statement in post 15 seemed contradictory. This statement makes sense and seems reasonable.
Important to note that Spawn votes for him on the first day. Could speak to his innocence.
Post 35—Outlines all reactions to his seer approach and defends it. As I have stated I actually found his early statements very reasonable and non-wolfish but I pointed out the ‘contradiction’ to stir up talk, and it worked rather well. He now voices suspicion for
Spawn for her reaction and her vote for him. Also, he is now suspicious of
Gurthang because of his early vote for
Formendacil
Post 37—cross posted and added
Rune to his list of reactions but thinks
Rune is innocent.
Post 50—Emphasizes that he is a man. Says that he’s suspicious of any that think his plan was a wolfish trick.
Post 63—He voices concern over the number of voted that
Formendacil has received, especially in light of the fact that
Formendacil has only posted once up to this point. He reiterates that he will most likely vote for
Spawn, though he doesn’t want to cause a double lynching.
Post 66—Cues in on
Boromir’s willingness to vote
Spawn and cross posts his vote with
Boromir’s vote for
Spawn. This vote put
Spawn in the lead and causes her to get lynched.
Overall DAY 1—He seems fairly consistent and made it so a wolf was lynched. As of this point I don’t find him suspicious unless there was a plot to sacrifice a wolf on this day, although
Spawn did go after him. Does this speak to his credit or not?
DAY 2
Post 79—First he laments the loss of our seer and wishes his advise had been heeded. He is suspicious of all three that voted for
Formendacil.
Wilwarin, Gurthang and Jack, all three of whom are innocent.
Post 88—He begins to have some suspicion of
Saucie and thinks that it’s possible that Jack dreamt of him but isn’t ready to add him to the “likely innocent” list.
Post 110—Thinks that everybody is too quick to give
Wilwarin innocent status because of her tie breaking vote for the unknown
Formendacil rather then the wolf
Spawn. Also is becoming suspicious of
Rune but missed him up until this point because of his focus on the Anti-
Formendacil campaign. However despite his suspicions he is willing to lynch
Wayne.
Post 121—Does not like
Fordim’s quantitative analysis method and reiterates that he will vote for
Wilwa or
Rune, but more than likely it will be
Rune because nobody is voting for
Wilwa.
Post 143—Gives
Rune his 3rd vote and says he considers
Gurthang to be innocent and that we should look at
Wilwa the next day.
Post 147 and
150—cross posted and rues that fact that his vote caused a tie though ends up thinking that my idea to double lynch that day is probably a good idea.
Overall DAY 2--The thing I find most interesting is that on DAY 1 and 2 he has been very consistent in all but one thing. He never gave any explanation as to why he suspected and voted
Rune. I think he saw the tide turning towards
Rune and either hoped on that as an innocent or with malicious intent. I’m not yet sure but it raised my eyebrow when I saw it.
DAY 3
Post 157—Essentially, he says that everything he has done, with the exception of his
Spawn vote, has gone horribly wrong and says he will rethink everything.
Post 159—Here he introduces a his new thought which sounds more like something they would be taught in
Harry Potters Defense Against the Dark Arts class it is called:
Mathematical Methods of Wolf Detection (oh I could just see Hermione loving this class
.) Anyway he comes up with his numerical method and gives everybody a score. The problem with this is that it seems too subjective. He realizes that there are probably errors in it and possibly missed variables but overall most people don’t respond to it.
Post 160—Defends the double lynch and admits that he was wrong in his suspicions.
Post 182—Is a long post analyzing me. He basically takes my actions and evaluates them as if I were an innocent, wolf or cobbler and comes to the conclusion that I’m reasonable if I’m innocent but also if I’m a wolf. Basically says it’s a point of view or perspective issue. Voices concern over
Kath and
Lhuna and their “safe votes” but notes that
Lhuna’s most recent vote for me is not so safe.
Post 188—He is grateful to have
Spm’s confidence but he doesn’t think he will survive the night. Restates that he is suspicious of both
Kath and
Lhuna though he is considering going for me. Gets confused over a statement of mine.
Post 190—After
Boromir, in
post 189, clarified for me (thank you Boro) what I meant and how I knew
Spawn would be having some difficulties, he is grateful and dismisses that doubt of me.
Post 196—He now has been voted for (I think twice) and is willing to form a voting block because “
In any case, since I know I'm innocent (and since I don't want to kill an innocent), and since there's a chance anyone else could be a wolf”. So essentially he’s saying I’m innocent but somebody else could be a wolf...let’s kill them instead! A bit odd and suspicious. Another thing in this post he has expressed doubt about
Kath and
Lhuna and I’ve been a ‘chance’ now
Kath and I are his main suspects with no mention of
Lhuna??? I’m not sure why, he could have merely changed his mind and not told anybody but he could be intentionally casting suspicion on
Lhuna but taking it away before it’s too much. Anyway, does this make him wolf? Not sure but likely not, it’s more likely that he changed his mind and didn’t vocalize it.
Post 199—Objects to
Formendacil’s vote for
Boromir and states that he doesn’t see the point in voting for somebody who is not likely to be lynched. I found this odd and posted about it. I think, more than likely, it’s a difference of opinion and not suspicious.
Post 202—Begins to see eye to eye with me to a degree on my complaint of his last point. Thinks
Boromir is acting a bit strange and will do whatever it takes to save himself i.e. voting for
Wayne.
Post 204—Asserts his notion that
SpM is innocent and tries to form and alliance with him. Seems likely to be an innocent move but then again we have been giving him the “you’re innocent” card since DAY 2 so it might not be a bad strategy for a wolf to pull.
Post 206—Doesn’t want to go for
Boromir because of Boro’s vote on DAY 1 for
Spawn and would rather go for me because of his idea that I’ve “
made no innocent moves”.
Post 211—Is confused about whom to vote for. Wants to know why
Saucepan Man thinks I am innocent and he is reticent to vote for
Boromir. Thinks killing
Wayne might be good because he thinks him to be the cobbler. Now I want to know what happened to
Kath and
Lhuna. I realize that you want to save yourself but at times innocents should sacrifice themselves for a cause they truly believe in.
Post 212—Votes
Wayne
Overall DAY 3—He was really consistent on DAY 1 and 2 but lost some of it here which makes me think and wonder a bit.
DAY 4
Post 216—Is a good post and I think speaks somewhat to his innocence. He reiterates that he is suspicious of
Kath, Lhuna and
Mormegil. (I’m glad to see it back to all three) He implies why he began to drop
Kath and
Lhuna the DAY before, which is essentially there was too much focus on others and that we (fellow innocents) need to come together today and get it right.
Post 225—Proposes a hybrid plan based on my idea of the Hunter and possibly the Ranger coming forward. His plan is that we all list who we are going to vote for and then if it seems either are in trouble they can come forward.
Post 230—Uses numerical method and essentially clears
Formendacil of all suspicion and says I still am highly suspicious but I could be innocent. Voices continued concern over
Kath and
Lhuna and thinks they may be a good idea for today.
Post 233—Reiterates that we should not be rash in our voting toDAY. It seems as though he wants control and to keep us organized. A very helpful thing to do if innocent and dangerous but fruitful if a wolf.
Post 235—He is rather defensive about himself and doesn’t think
Fordim is a wolf although admits that
Boromir could be correct in thinking him to be a cobbler, to which idea I myself subscribe now.
Post 240—Analysis of
Boromir which doesn’t seem to come to a conclusion.
My conclusion
Overall I think
Aiwendil is innocent and I will give him the benefit of my small doubts. I will continue to watch for any and all suspicious behavior however. He has been very consistent, which can be difficult for wolves to do. The major nagging doubt is he early thinks that
Rune is innocent but then out of the blue suspects him and votes for him. Also if
Boromir is a wolf then it might be safe to think that
Aiwnedil is either taken in by
Boromir or a wolf himself.
One last request of you Aiwendil, can you make a better case against
Kath and
Lhuna other than their "safe votes"? I ask because I am suspicious of them but want to hear more reasons from you.
I hope you enjoyed this because it took me a really long time.