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On that note, I'm not as sure I could argue completely for Gurthang's innocense based solely in the voting, as he might have realized that either way Garin was lost and chose to cut with his (possibly) fellow werewolf rather than taking the fall with him. Still, I'm playing a bit of devil's advocate as I do not suspect Gurthang at the moment.
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Just to elaborate on this point for future reference (if really untoward things start happening, and any survivors want to come back and see this) if Gurthang had voted for Lhuna it would not have made any difference in Garin’s fate because Garin was the first to 5. Gurthang could have been thinking of providing cover for himself because there was no point in not voting for Garin. But this is all just a theory to keep in mind. Like Farael, I don't propose following this up at the moment.
I think the Nilpaurion question needs to be settled one way or another before we proceed on to other decisions. If things start going all pear-shaped, then we can start hashing over more outlandish theories. At the moment we have a clearer trail to investigate…although I’m not sure how much more useful there is to be said. Nilpaurion is probably not going to take this lying down whether he is guilty or innocent. That is when the real “fun” is going to begin. However, I think the case against him is pretty much made now…although the village is open to possibilities.
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I think that Garin's vote for Lhuna pretty much saves her from most suspicion, yet there might be another wolf who voted for Lhuna early on. Those who voted for Lhuna were:
-Amanduial
-TGWBS
-Malkatoj
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Nothing is more likely. I think this is probably the trail to follow next after the Nilp issue is settled.
As for the Seer stuff that is being bandied about…
At this moment, I’m not sure I favor the Seer coming forward even if they do have the name of a wolf. If the name they have is
Nilpaurion, he stands a fair chance of getting the chop toDAY anyway. I don’t want the Seer put at risk for that when he/she would be in a position to find out another name from Nilpaurion. However, if the name is somebody else than Nilp, then Nilp’s status is still at issue and we have to find out about that anyway. The Seer can (hopefully) come forward with the name later, whether Nilp is a wolf or not.
Of course, it is also pretty likely that the Seer only has the names of innocents. This is certainly useful knowledge that I don’t particularly want, even temporarily, lost before the Apprentice could pick it up.
Obviously, the Seer will have to make the decision, but for the moment I would strongly urge caution.