[Kuruharan]

Amanaduial’s Posting History

DAY ONE

Post 60 – Basic stupid DAY ONE post

Post 102 – Basically another stupid DAY ONE post – votes for me

DAY TWO

Post 169 – Critiques Lhuna for a hasty vote
Says Nilp is strange
Comments on Alcarillo being overly competitive
Makes a completely random and senseless remark about Rune (even though it was in Rune’s favor it was still senseless)
Comments on malkatoj
Then votes for Lhuna in her first post of the DAY, doing the exact same thing she faulted Lhuna for, which seems to have formed the basis for her own vote

Post 171 – Thinks Nilp is innocent

Post 188 – Gurthang had challenged her criticisms of Alcarillo, so she defended herself
Expressed conflicting opinions of Cailín
Then expressed confusion regarding the knowledge possessed by the Cobbler
Then mentioned (obliquely) the possibility she might change her vote

Post 209 – Defended Garin
Attempted to defend Garin by throwing suspicion on Cailín
Says she “thinks” Garin is innocent and further defends him

Post 220 – Does an “oopsie!” for thinking she can change her vote
Criticizes Valier for voting for Garin

Post 225 – Asks if Eluchil’s failure to vote would override Garin’s impending doom.
Says Eluchil still had time
This is a very curious post considering the way she defended Garin and what Garin turned out to be

DAY THREE

Post 233 – Says Valier and Alcarillo are probably innocent
Suspects TGWBS. Lhuna, and malkatoj because they don’t post much
Vague about Meneltarmacil
Suspicious of Nilp
Wonders again about the knowledge of the Cobbler

Post 281 – Now refuses to vote for Nilp, even though she suspected him in the previous post, because Nilp is just like that.
Says her suspicions of Cailín are waning but those of Lhuna seem to be growing
Wants to hear more from Naria and Azaelia
Says Naria is also in line for a vote from her

Post 288 – Still defends Nilp
Votes for Lhuna

Post 291 – Still sort of defends Nilp

DAY FOUR

Post 305 – Says Rune and Farael are probably innocent
Says her suspicions of Lhuna are waning, but she still holds them
Suspects Cailín
Argues against Gurthang – this argument was rejected by Gurthang in post 315

Seer Revelation in post 317

Post 320 – Concedes Gurthang and Alcarillo are innocent
Says Naria looked guilty but is probably the Hunter
Comments that the wolves have lots of choices that NIGHT
Notes that Farael, me, and Naria were the ones most vocal about the Seer revelation
Then faults Naria for suspecting Lhuna (Pot calling Kettle “Black”)
Says will vote for Naria or Farael, which is strange because earlier in this post she said she thought Naria was the Hunter. She does explain she thinks this might be a wolf plan.

Hunter Revelation in post 331

Cailín says she is not the Hunter in 336

Post 354 – Explains why she continues to believe Naria is a wolf in further detail, in spite of these revelations.
Says Naria is currently tied for the lead and since Naria got there first she’d be the one hung under current circumstances (I think this is very important in light of her later vote)
Believes Naria is operating a perfect wolf plan
Still suspects Farael

Post 357 – Voted for Naria, brining back the tie I’d just broken by voting for TGWBS. Was she perhaps hoping somebody else would come along to vote against Naria?

DAY FIVE
Post 367 – Accusatory of me
Says Naria is not proven innocent, but says it is likely that she is. This is an utter contradiction to her behavior on DAY FOUR with no explanation. This is especially troubling in light of her eager pursuit of Naria.

Voting History

Meneltarmacil – Gil-Galad, No Vote, Nilp, TGWBS

Cailín – Gil-Galad, Eluchil, Naria, Naria

Azaelia – Menel, Garin, No Vote, TGWBS, Kuru

Farael – Eluchil, Garin, Nilp, TGWBS

Rune – Gil-Galad, Garin, malkatoj, malkatoj

Alcarillo – Garin, Cailín, Nilp, TGWBS

Lhunardawen – Nilp, Eluchil, Naria, Naria

Amanaduial – Kuru, Lhuna, Lhuna, Naria

Naria – Nilp, Cailín, Nilp, Cailín

Kuruharan – Garin, Garin, Nilp, TGWBS

malkatoj – Nilp, Lhuna, TGWBS, No Vote

Those Who Have Voted Twice for a Wolf
Kuruharan

Those Who Have Voted Once for a Wolf
Alcarillo, Azaelia, Farael, Rune

Those Who Have Never Voted for a Wolf
Meneltarmacil, Cailín, Lhunardawen, Amanaduial, Naria, malkatoj

Voting Order DAY FOUR
Cailín – Naria
Lhunardawen – Naria
Azaelia – TGWBS
Naria – Cailín
TGWBS – Naria
Farael – TGWBS
Menel – TGWBS
Rune – malkatoj
Kuru – TGWBS
Aman – Naria
Gurthang – TGWBS
Alcarillo – TGWBS

I find Amanaduial disturbing for a number of reasons. First of all there are these repeated bits of confusion about the rules, which could be designed to spread confusion among the innocent. Then there is the general style of her postings which are usually either quite brief or long and rambling. The lengthy posts tend to be quite confusing to attempt to sit down and decipher as the meaning can be buried under a prodigious amount of verbage. A few posts also contradict each other from beginning to end. This all could smack very strongly of a wolf who is attempting to appear helpful while in actuality attempting to lead every one astray. Finally, there is the fact that she has never voted for a wolf. Those are my more general reasons for suspicion.

Specifically, she defended our deservedly dead enemy Garin. She actually went to some lengths to do this and posted about it several times. Then there is that very strange post 225 where she’s asking about Eluchil’s death overriding Garin’s. In light of Garin’s status this seems just a touch over-concerned.

Her behavior toward Cailín and Farael could charitably be described as “waffling” and usually for not entirely sound reasons.

However, the real whopper is her behavior toward Naria. Now, granted, she was hardly the only one to express suspicions about Naria. What is different is how she reacted after Cailín declared she was not the Hunter and said Naria was. Not only did Amanaduial continue her pursuit of Naria it became even more strident. She pointed out that Naria was the one currently in line for the chop. After my vote for TGWBS she promptly swooped down and created another tie. As I said above, was she hoping somebody else would come in and off Cailín? Then toDAY Amanaduial says she thinks Naria is at least “innocent” (without explaining herself), which in effect means she now thinks Naria is the Hunter. This is downright incriminating given her behavior yesterDAY.

I believe that yesterDAY Amanaduial was hoping that Naria would be killed and that Naria would kill Cailín (since Naria had voted that way and a dark cloud of suspicion did fall on Cailín for a bit there yesterDAY). This would dispose of two innocents at one blow, and one of them a dangerous innocent at that. ToDAY she’s changed her tactics because she thinks she can score more points by going along with the notion that Naria is the Hunter. She is probably thinking of going after me based on my arguments with Gurthang. We’ll see when we get there.

One thing that could speak in her favor is that she supported Nilp (mostly, she spoke against him in post 233...possibly an attempt to goad the rest of us in one direction while she switched sides). However, this could have been a little ploy on her part to build immunity for herself by supporting somebody who was probably going to get it at some point. Then, afterwards, if people began to seriously call her into question, she could go back and say, "See, I told you so!"

Now, is this an iron-clad case against Amanaduial?

No, I’m afraid it isn’t. Each one of these things taken individually, while some do seem a little more suspicious than others, could be reasonably explained away. However, it is the continual piling of one odd behavior on top of another that really begins to grow alarming. Even so, this could be just a pile of unfortunate circumstances. But, I think this pile reeks strongly of a wolf and I think it deserves serious consideration. (She even voted for our Seer twice.) I'm also not convinced that Cailin has clean hands in all this business, but I think Amanaduial is deserving of our attention for the present.

I do have a tactical suggestion to make, but I’d like to wait for our Seer and our confirmed innocent to offer their opinions before offering it. (I’m afraid Naria doesn’t quite count as “confirmed” even though I’m perfectly prepared to believe her).