[Shelob]

I think the 'safe' posters do get away with it.

'Safe' posters may get away with it, but they're under a ton of pressure. They must be, since they're rather like scapegoats.

Wolves are under enough pressure as it is, they must hide while out in the open, they mustn't do anything to make themselves look guilty, they mustn't do anything to make their fellow wolves look guilty, they need to vote so as to not draw attention, they need (if possible) to guarantee that an innocent rather than a wolf is lynched.

People who are loudmouths tend to get listened to and therefore followed, for a while at least. People who are quiet are either lynched off for being suspicous or completely ignored because they add nothing and so can't rightly be accused. Outstanding voters (I assume you mean eccentric, bold or those which, say, cause a tie) draw attention to themselves but, unless there's a very good reason, are usually overlooked on the assumption that wolves will be voting with specific goals and in specific patterns.

To me this means a wolf outside the 'safe zone' may be more likely to get votes, but is also better able to cast off, or explain away, suspicions. They'd still be under a ton of pressure, of course. But wolf to whom people listen can easily persuade people that others are more of a threat. And a wolf who remains extreemly quiet can play the "I was busy" or "I haven't done anything to warrent your suspicion" card, and buy themselves another day or two. As for outstanding voters, all they have to do is point out that someone else has a clear pattern, or has happend to vote for people who are now all dead and prooven innocent, and there's the village harping on someone new. It's the more dangerous game for them to play, but then isn't our immediate reaction (and continual fall-back plan) to attack those who could easily be wolves.

I didn't mean to say I doubted we'd have 'safe' wolves, I'll probably be voting for a 'safe' poster (a 'safe' vote, as it were), but we can't focus on just them.

i still don't put much stock in first days...

On the first day no, but the way people act on the first day helps you to notice inconsistancies later. A person who acted one way on the first day can't suddenly shift tactics without drawing a ton of attention. Meaning our wolves risk getting themselves trapped in a tactic which could backfire on them.