[the guy who be short]

Apologies to people who have mentioned my quietness - College, then circumstances.

But, here are some promised analyses:

Death of Abercrombie

1. Formendacil for Valier (Valier-1)
2. Waynethe Goblin for Formendacil (Valier-1; Formendacil-1)
3. Nilpaurion for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1)
4. Valier for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1, Wayne-1)
5. AbercrombieofRohan for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-1)
6. Cailin for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
7. Mormegil for Valier (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
8. Saucepan Man for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-1)
9. TGWBS for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
10. Garin for Valier (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
11. Spawn for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-3)
12. Aiwendil for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-4)
13. Kath for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5)
14. Shelob for Garin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
15. Malkatoj for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
16. Glirdan for SpM (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)
17. Naria for Nilpaurion (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-3, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)

(Thank you SpM - I stole yours, as it was presented much more prettily.)

What's noticable? The Abercrombie bandwagon started late - and that's odd. SpM was the first to vote for her, and there seemed little chance of her being lynched then. A "safe" vote, but I don't think this incriminating, partially because I'm inclined to trust SpM, and partly because, with voting so spread out, almost all votes could be considered "safe" early on.

The second vote was from me, bringing Abercrombie up to two votes - the highest the other candidates had at the time too. This, also, I don't consider "safe" - if anything, I consider it the opposite, as it brought Abercrombie into the list of potentially lynchable people.

Spawn was the next to vote. I'm not sure what to make of her. This was when Valier also had three votes, again tying. Without knowing Valier's identity, we can't infer anything.

Aiwendil voted next - and died in the night. I'm not sure what to make of this - hopefully I will have time for an analysis of Aiwendil's words and potential reasons he was killed, but that will be next post, if at all. What relevance it has here, I'm not sure.

Finally, Kath's vote for Abercrombie. Not wolvish at all. Just look at the numbers involved when she voted - it was an incriminating, non-wolf thing to do.

So, I must say, I feel that all those voting for Abercrombie were innocent. This is not only because I was in the group - it seemed like a rational thing to do, at the time, and while I regret her innocence, I believed it to be logical.

There are claims that Aiwendil's death may have been calculated to take the spotlight off those who voted for him. I don't support this - I think it put more emphasis and more mystery around those voting for Abercrombie.
But then, perhaps I simply feel so as I am in that group of voters...

As for who I feel could be guilty, that comes...