The votes have to tell something. At least I hope they do.
Day 1 ; Day 2 ; Day 3 (thus far)
Formendacil -> Valier ; Sauce (8)
Wayne -> Formendacil ; no vote ; Wayne
Nilpaurion -> Nilp ; malkatoj (1)
--Valier -> Wayne ; Garin (3)
--Abercrombie -> Nilp
Cailin -> Wayne ; Garin (9)
Mormegil -> Valier ; Cailín (4)
Sauce -> Abercrombie ; Shelob (5)
TGWBS -> Abercrombie ; Naria (6)
Garin -> Valier ; Shelob (12)
Spawn -> Abercrombie ; Shelob (7)
--Aiwendil -> Abercrombie
Kath -> Abercrombie ; Valier (10)
--Shelob -> Garin ; Cailín (11)
Malkatoj -> Wayne ; Kath (2) ; Sauce
Glirdan -> Sauce ; no vote ; Sauce
Naria -> Nilp ; no vote
Márcolië -> no vote ; no vote
Gil-Galad -> no vote ; no vote ; Wayne
Those who have voted for a known innocent who got lynched are bolded. Those who have voted for a known innocent who got killed by wolves are italicized. The number behind Day 2's votes is the order in which the votes were cast. Day 1's votes are already in chronological order.
I'd believe that the wolves don't care who will be lynched as long it won't be one of their own. Voting for an innocent can make one look really bad, but really, what does it tell? Ordinary villagers don't know who the wolves are, so the odds are that they will make a mistake and vote for a fellow innocent. However, the wolves are very well informed who's guilty and who's not, and because voting for someone whose role will be revealed at the end of a Day is risky since those voters are bound to get some attention the next Day, it would be wise to stay out of that and vote for someone else - even a fellow wolf.
Now, there are too many of those who haven't voted on both days, and it's all pretty confusing with bluffing, double bluffing, triple bluffing... But I believe that there was at least one wolf who stayed behind on both days to observe how the voting shall go. One that fills those criterias and looks pretty suspicious anyway is
Glirdan. The other one is
Cailín. Statistically speaking, it's probable that there's also a wolf in the bolded/ italicized group, but I can't really tell whom I'd suspect the most of them. At this point, I weill definitely keep an eye on those two. Oh, and since my logics have failed me thus far, if I only have time, I think I'll go and make a case against someone I really haven't suspected. Maybe I then have a better chance to find a wolf.
What about
Wayne, then, voting himself like that? And in two minutes,
Gil appears to cast his vote for Wayne, too. If we are going for a double lynching toDay, I'd suggest that we take out two silent ones instead of someone who actually contributes a lot (leaves us more clues). In the end, if it turns out to be a bad choice, I'll rather be killed by wolves who did good job hiding right under our noses than by wolves who acted suspiciously all the time but to whom we always gave a second chance. I don't know whether I'd like to have a double lynching or not, though. Depends on who are the lynching candidates, I guess.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Nilp
I believe that saucemanpoet . . .
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I thought that sounded familiar...
