[The Saucepan Man]

As much as Cailin's redoubtable intelligence concerned me when I feared her to be a Wolf, I trust it in one that I now know to have been innocent. Armed with the knowledge of her innocence, I respect her judgement.

Originally Posted by Cailin yesterday

Innocents:

Nilp
TGWBS
Glirdan
Kath
Saucepan Man (?)

Setting myself aside (as it is for you to decide whether you trust me), I am inclined to view each of these villagers favourably for the time being, both on the basis that Cailin trusted them and on the basis of my own instincts (although they have not exactly served me well so far ).

I have been fairly convinced of Nilp's innocence for most of the game. I still am. I may be wrong but, if I am, I shall never quiz with him again ( ).

TGWBS has, after a slow start, talked little but good sense. I agree with almost everything that he has said. His conclusions on mormegil are perhaps an exception, but I can certainly see how he got there. If he is a Wolf, he is playing an exceedingly good (albeit fiendish) game.

My original suspicions of Glirdan lessened considerably yesterday. And, the more I think about it, the more his behaviour looks to me to be that of an innocent. I do not think that a Wolf would have pressed the case against me so strongly over the course of three Days, since he would immediately have been under suspcion were I to have been lynched. As I have said, there has been no need, given the way that the voting has gone, for the Wolves to have taken such risks. I know that this will not help others' conclusions about Glirdan, but it greatly assists me.

TGWBS made some good points in Kath's favour yesterday. Her votes, and particularly her Day 1 vote, look decidedly un-Wolfish to me in light of what we now know. Her early vote today is slightly unnerving, but I am willing to accept that there are good reasons for it. Moreover, whether mormegil is innocent or guilty, it is a foolish vote for a Wolf. It is quite possible, as matters stand, that he will be lynched today and, if that happens, a Wolfish Kath risks either losing a partner in crime, if he is guilty, or attracting immediate suspision, if he is innocent. So I do not think that Kath is a Wolf.

I continue to believe malkatoj innocent, mainly for the Aiwendil/Kath vote, but also because it would have been unnecessarily risky for a Wolf to vote for me at such an early stage yesterday (again, that helps only me).

I am still inclined to believe Formendacil when he says that he would have been paying much more attention to proceedings were he a Wolf. I do not discount the possibility that he is bluffing. But, again, there has been little need for the Wolves to take any risks thus far, and Formendacil's approach has been risky, if he is a Wolf. Currently, I don't think that he is.

Which brings me to a difficult trio: mormegil, dancing spawn and Garin. Their votes, on the face of it, would appear to incriminate them. Although no more than mine. I can hardly accuse them of being Wolves on the basis of their voting record, given my own poor record. And, as I have said, their votes look to me to be unnecessarily risky ones for Wolves to have cast. Thus far, I have been inclined to trust mormegil and dancing spawn because they have seemed to me to be talking good sense. The fact that dancing spawn has hardly been considered as a possible Wolf concerns me, but I am prepared to give both of them the benefit of the doubt for the time being. If they are innocent, they are worth having around. Garin I have been less sure about and I will keep an eye on him, but I don't have any specific reason for suspecting him at present. I do, however, have a concern that there may be one bold Wolf (two at a stretch) amongst this trio.

So that leaves me with Gil-Galad, Naria and Marcolie Lamen.

Gil-Galad I have no idea about. Like Wayne, he can look suspicious when he is not. His stated reason for voting for Wayne yesterday (that he may have been a Wolf "pulling a Nilp") seems reasonable to me. And his behaviour to date has been much as I would expect from him. So, difficult to say.

Marcolie Lamen, I have no handle on. Her two "no votes" might be regarded as suspicious, and therefore unduly risky for a Wolf, but she has given reasons why she was not able to vote and they apply whether she is innocent or guilty. And it is difficult to draw any conclusions from her vote yesterday, as it was rather forced on her by circumstances. It is fair to say, however, that her voting record has attracted little attention to her so far.

My main suspicion at the moment, therefore, is directed towards Naria. Other than Glirdan (who has voted twice for me), she is the only one of us to have cast no vote for a known innocent. Which, on the basis of the theory which I outlined earlier, makes her very suspicous in my eyes. As has been noted on a number of occasions, her vote for Nilp right at the end of Day 1 was a very safe vote for a Wolf to make. She did not vote on Day 2. And her Day 3 vote for Formendacil, while it carried with it the possibility of getting him lynched, was actually very unlikely to do so in light of the way that the day was going. I do not discount the possibility that it was a Wolf on Wolf vote.

So, to summarise (and excluding myself):

Probably innocent
Nilpaurion Felagund
TGWBS
Kath
Glirdan

Prepared to continue to give the benefit of the doubt
Formendacil
mormegil
dancing spawn
Garin

No idea
Gil-Galad
Marcolie Lamen

Probably a Wolf
Naria

Note that I think it unlikely that our Wolfish trio comprises Gil-Galad, Marcolie Lamen and Naria, so there is at least one Wolf, possibly two, elsewhere on my list. Probably among the four that I am currently giving the benefit of the doubt to - problem is, I have no idea which.