[The Saucepan Man]

OK, here is my analysis of the voting thus far. It concentrates on the votes of those who remain unknown quantities, assuming that those who malkatoj has declared innocent are indeed innocent (although one of them could, of course, still be the Cobbler). I will not re-post the lists of votes, as they are all available further up the discussion (thanks spawn), and it will take up unnecessary space to post them again.

Day 1 - If the Wolves were looking to spread their votes, then the votes of dancing spawn and Kath speak in their favour. They both voted for Abercrombie, whom TGWBS had voted for. However, it remains possible that two Wolves voted for the same innocent villager, particularly on Day 1. Garin's vote put Valier, a known innocent, ahead. Glirdan's vote for me could be seen as a safe throwaway vote. Gil-Galad did not vote.

Day 2 - Given that we know Naria was a Wolf, Kath's vote looks like an innocent one. She could have put Naria in a safer position by voting for either Shelob or Garin. Garin's vote looks suspicious as it put Shelob ahead. Spawn's could go either way as it put Shelob ahaead of Naria, but was perhaps a risky vote for a Wolf at that stage. Gil-Galad and Glirdan did not vote, and neither did Naria. How likely is it that two Wolves would not turn up to vote?

Day 3 - Difficult to tell much as all the votes were for known innocents. Kath's vote looks the most suspicious as it carried with it the least chance of revealing that it was cast for a known innocent. She voted for the same villager (mormegil) that TGWBS had voted for, but mormegil was unlikely to be lynched that day. If Garin is a Wolf, he was taking quite a risk in voting for Cailin.

Day 4 - Kath voted for mormegil and TGWBS later followed suit. How likely is it that two Wolves would vote for the same villager in the circumstances of Day 4? Possible, I suppose, given that Naria was in danger when TGWBS voted. Glirdan's vote is the least suspicious as it was quite likely that Gil-Galad would be lynched at the time he voted. The votes of Garin and dancing spawn are quite innocuous, and could have been Wolfish attempts to hide. Dancing spawn could have voted to try to save Naria instead of voting for malkatoj, but that would have been a risky vote for a Wolf. Gil-Galad did not vote again. How likely is it that a Wolf would fail to vote 3 days out of four?

Hmm, difficult to draw any solid conclusions. I remain inclined to view Glirdan as innocent and the way that the voting has gone makes me think that Gil-Galad is too, although he could be the Cobbler.

Garin's votes look the most suspicious, but that is not necessarily the sign of a Wolf as it is quite likely that a Wolf would have voted more cautiously than he has. And his suspicious voting pattern ties in with the idea that the Wolves have been looking to frame him with their nightly votes.

As for Kath, her voting pattern could go either way. TGWBS has spoken in support of her quite frequently. An attempt to protect his Wolfish companion, or an attempt to establish false guilt by association? Difficult to know.

Dancing spawn really does concern me, though. She has been vocal throughout. Her contributions have made good sense. Mostly because of that, she has not yet attracted a single vote. Is she a very clever and careful Wolf who has succeeded in slipping almost entorely beneath our collective radars?

I will have to go back and review what has been said throughout our four previous days of discussion. For today, I see little point in a double-lynch unless we can be reasonably sure that we have identified the final Wolf. I am not nearly certain enough to countenance voting for anyone other than TGWBS at this stage. We do not want to help the last Wolf by eliminating an innocent with our known Wolf. We would then be two innocents and one Wolf down tomorrow.