[The Saucepan Man]

Who might be the last Wolf out of the remaining unknowns?

Gil-Galad
An unknown quantity. His posts, and his one vote, tell us very little. But I still have a concern that, with Naria voting infrequently, the third Wolf would not be such a consistent non-voter too.

Originally Posted by TGWBS on Day 1

I, TGWBS, hereby formally declare suspicion of the following: Wayne, SpM, mormegil, Gil, Abercrombie.

Four of those he randomly accused on Day 1 are now known to be innocent. Is the fifth also innocent, or did he include a fellow Wolf in that list?

Originally Posted by TGWBS on Day 3

The two others I'm closely watching at the moment are wayne and Gil. Of these two, I find Gil most worrying ... But Gil's vote - that's incriminating! It can't really be construed as anything but a capitalisation on wayne's self-vote.

It would be dangerous for a Wolf to cast suspicion, and so strongly, on Gil-Galad if he was a fellow Wolf. This would suggest to me that Gil is not a fellow Wolf.

Originally Posted by TGWBS, also on Day 3

For myself, I see the werewolves as mormegil, Glirdan, and either Garin or a quiet villager such as wayne, Gil or Marco.

Same comment applies. And this also speaks in Garin's favour, given that Garin has generally been under a lot of suspicion. It is possible, however, that TGWBS chose to include one fellow Wolf on that list in an attempt to clear them should he be lynched.

Glirdan
OK, I'll be frank, here. I think that Glirdan is the Hunter. Remember that the Ranger and the Hunter knew who each other were and could communiate during the day? Of all the villagers still alive, Cailin's posts point most towards Glirdan being the Hunter. She defended him quite strongly. Spawn voiced strong suspicion of Cailin and Garin voted for her, so it cannot be either of those two.

Kath
TGWBS made the point yesterday that Kath's votes have been among some of the least suspicious.

Originally Posted by TGWBS on Day 2

Finally, Kath's vote for Abercrombie. Not wolvish at all. Just look at the numbers involved when she voted - it was an incriminating, non-wolf thing to do

Originally Posted by TGWBS on Day 3

I think I will mention Kath. After Day 1, I believed in her innocence due to her voting for Abercrombie last. Yesterday, she was the only one to vote for Valier. Unless she's being incredibly bold, I don't think she's a wolf. Why kill somebody you voted for in the Day?

I agreed with what he said about Kath's votes, although the reason that she gave for voting for Abercrombie (following spawn) still seems strange. However, TGWBS's fairly strong defence of Kath gives me reason to worry about her.

Also, one other point to note about Kath, from reviewing her contributions, is that she seems to work by looking at the ideas that others have put forward and basing her own contributions on that - agreeing or disagreeing with others' ideas, rather than putting forward her own. Possibly, a good way for a Wolf to hide.

As has been noted, she has voted the same way as TGWBS on every day, except Day 3 when TGWBS voted for a fellow Wolf. That is incriminating on the face of it, but would two Wolves vote so consistently for the same villagers?

Garin
I really do not think Garin to be a Wolf. If he is, he has been playing very boldly. Just look at this:

Garin voted for Valier on Day 1. Valier voted for him on Day 2. Valier dies on Night 3 and is shown to be innocent.

Garin voted for Shelob on Day 2, to save himself. Shelob is lynched and shown to be innocent.

Cailin strongly suspected Garin and voted for him on Day 2.

Originally Posted by Cailin on Day 2

Now Garin does look suspicious in my eyes. He mostly just agrees with Saucy and Morm, which is always clever because they are likely people to bring up a case against you.

He voted for Cailin on Day 3. Cailin was forced to reveal herself as the Ranger and died on Night 4.

Marcolie Lamen strongly suspected Garin on Day 4, but did not vote. Garin voted for Marcolie Lamen on Day 4.

Originally Posted by Marcolie Lamen on Day 3

It makes sense to me for Naria and Garin to be working together, at opposite ends of the spetrum, and then someone else in between.

Originally Posted by Garin on Day 3

In fact, I found the post to be wolvish enough and I have too much work to do that I will vote now:
++Márcolië Lamen

Marcolie Lamen dies on Night 5 and is shown to be innocent.

Garin has some kind of involvement with the death of most of the innocents who have died. Would a Wolf be so foolish as to allow this to happen? Possibly, but it is extremely risky behaviour for a Wolf. The fact that Marcolie died last night tends to suggest to me that it was yet another attmept to frame him and that he is in fact innocent.

Dancing spawn
She has voted for a known innocent on every day and that three of those she has voted for ended up being lynched on the day she voted for them. However, since three of my four votes have been for known innocents, I cannot accuse her on that basis alone. I can find very little else that incriminates her, although that fact in itself is worrying.

On Day 2, however, she did stoke up the suspicion of Shelob and Cailin:

Originally Posted by Dancing spawn on Day 2

Somehow I'm now starting to feel more uneasy about Shelob and Cailín. I'll go looking back at their posts now and tell if I find something.

I will not deny that dancing spawn's suspicions of these two influenced my own thoughts about them. She is a sensible and analytical villager, and so I respect her views. When they match my own thoughts, then they reinforce them. That makes her dangerous in my eyes.

TGWBS's comments are interesting, as far as spawn is concerned:

Originally Posted by TGWBS on Day 2

Spawn was the next to vote. I'm not sure what to make of her. This was when Valier also had three votes, again tying. Without knowing Valier's identity, we can't infer anything.

This might be seen as an attempt to tie dancing spawn's innocence to that of Valier (as spawn's vote tied Abercrombie with Valier). Valier was later killed by the Wolves and shown to be innocent.

Originally Posted by TGWBS, also on Day 2

So, I must say, I feel that all those voting for Abercrombie were innocent. This is not only because I was in the group - it seemed like a rational thing to do, at the time, and while I regret her innocence, I believed it to be logical.

By declaring those who voted for Abercrombie to be innocent, he is attempting to clear himself. But is he also attempting to clear either Kath or spawn? It would be a logical thing to do if two Wolves had ended up getting themselves caught in the Abercrombie bandwaggon.

Originally Posted by TGWBS on Day 3

Interestingly, spawn, SpM, Kath and Garin have all voted for innocents twice. I'm not sure how telling this is, as I'm inclined to suspect none of the above, really. Perhaps I shall have to look into all of them individually. I went through Valier's posts, and she doesn't really mention anybody but Garin. As Cailin says, this makes him look bad, but it could easily be a bluff, or double bluff.

Again, a possible attempt to clear either spawn or Kath - and he also mentions Garin.

To conclude, I would prefer not to include in any double-lynching Gil-Galad, Garin or Glirdan (the 'three Gs' that everyone else seems so suspicious of).

That leaves Kath or spawn ...

Edit: Cross-posted with Glirdan, morm and spawn, whose comments I shall address shortly.