The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

**The Saucepan Man** · 02-13-2006, 05:03 PM

We owe a great debt to malkatoj, who gave her life to save this village. Let us repay her by finishing the job for her.

Day 5 voting? Well it's traditional for me to give it, I suppose, even though it won't tell us much.

1. Malkatoj for TGWBS (TGWBS-1)
2. Nilpaurion for TGWBS (TGWBS-2)
3. Garin for TGWBS (TGWBS-3)
4. Formendacil for TGWBS (TGWBS-4)
5. TGWBS for mormegil (TGWBS-4, mormegil-1)
6. Mormegil for TGWBS (TGWBS-5, mormegil-1)
7. Glirdan for TGWBS (TGWBS-6, mormegil-1)
8. Dancing spawn for TGWBS (TGWBS-7, mormegil-1)
9. SpM for TGWBS (TGWBS-8, mormegil-1)
10. Gil-Galad for dancing spawn (TGWBS-8, mormegil-1, dancing spawn-1)

Did not vote: Kath

The only real point of discussion is Gil's vote, but my view on that is that it could go either way. He is either attempting a clever bluff, or he really didn't pay attention to what was happening yesterday. Gil is capable of either. Kath's non-vote (and non-appearance yesterday) doesn't tell us anything, as she warned beforehand that she would be out of town for the day (see the admin thread).

Reminder of what we know (Gil, take note

):

Hunter: Glirdan

Known not to be Wolves, but may be the Cobbler:
The Saucepan Man
Mormegil
Formendacil
Nilpaurion Felagund

Unknown:
Dancing spawn of ungoliant
Kath
Garin
Gil-Galad

If we were to make random choices, we would have a 1 in 4 chance of finding the Wolf today, a 1 in 3 chance tomorrow and a 50:50 chance the day after that. Only, by that time, there might well be two innocents facing a Wolf and a Cobbler. Village loses. And I am not sure that we have a much better chance if we use what has been said and done so far to guide us. Let's be honest. The remaining Wolf could be any one of the unknowns. We can use the record, to an extent. But I think that reasonable cases could be made for, and against, each one of them. Add to that a Cobbler and a Wolf desperately trying to lead us in astray and things are rather more desperate than Senor mormegil suggested yesterday.

So, I suggest that we try to organise a double lynching today and, if necessary, another one tomorrow. We then give ourselves (all else being equal) a 50:50 chance of finding a Wolf today. And, even if we are wrong, we have a 100% chance of killing the Wolf tomorrow. Assuming that we can avoid the tricksiness of the Cobbler and the remaining Wolf, that is. So we need to be careful in our organisation.

What say you all?

02-13-2006, 05:03 PM	#360
The Saucepan Man Corpus Cacophonous Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: A green and pleasant land Posts: 8,390	We owe a great debt to malkatoj, who gave her life to save this village. Let us repay her by finishing the job for her. Day 5 voting? Well it's traditional for me to give it, I suppose, even though it won't tell us much. 1. Malkatoj for TGWBS (TGWBS-1) 2. Nilpaurion for TGWBS (TGWBS-2) 3. Garin for TGWBS (TGWBS-3) 4. Formendacil for TGWBS (TGWBS-4) 5. TGWBS for mormegil (TGWBS-4, mormegil-1) 6. Mormegil for TGWBS (TGWBS-5, mormegil-1) 7. Glirdan for TGWBS (TGWBS-6, mormegil-1) 8. Dancing spawn for TGWBS (TGWBS-7, mormegil-1) 9. SpM for TGWBS (TGWBS-8, mormegil-1) 10. Gil-Galad for dancing spawn (TGWBS-8, mormegil-1, dancing spawn-1) Did not vote: Kath The only real point of discussion is Gil's vote, but my view on that is that it could go either way. He is either attempting a clever bluff, or he really didn't pay attention to what was happening yesterday. Gil is capable of either. Kath's non-vote (and non-appearance yesterday) doesn't tell us anything, as she warned beforehand that she would be out of town for the day (see the admin thread). Reminder of what we know (Gil, take note ): Hunter: Glirdan Known not to be Wolves, but may be the Cobbler: The Saucepan Man Mormegil Formendacil Nilpaurion Felagund Unknown: Dancing spawn of ungoliant Kath Garin Gil-Galad If we were to make random choices, we would have a 1 in 4 chance of finding the Wolf today, a 1 in 3 chance tomorrow and a 50:50 chance the day after that. Only, by that time, there might well be two innocents facing a Wolf and a Cobbler. Village loses. And I am not sure that we have a much better chance if we use what has been said and done so far to guide us. Let's be honest. The remaining Wolf could be any one of the unknowns. We can use the record, to an extent. But I think that reasonable cases could be made for, and against, each one of them. Add to that a Cobbler and a Wolf desperately trying to lead us in astray and things are rather more desperate than Senor mormegil suggested yesterday. So, I suggest that we try to organise a double lynching today and, if necessary, another one tomorrow. We then give ourselves (all else being equal) a 50:50 chance of finding a Wolf today. And, even if we are wrong, we have a 100% chance of killing the Wolf tomorrow. Assuming that we can avoid the tricksiness of the Cobbler and the remaining Wolf, that is. So we need to be careful in our organisation. What say you all? __________________ Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind!