[Firefoot]

Well. I was wrong, then. Ouch. I dare say we're in trouble... one more mistake and the wolves win... and I seem to have dug myself a bit of a hole, somehow. Since I was not here to respond to those accusations against me yesterday, I will try to do so now.

I understand that Thinlomian's mistrust was rather random, but why didn't Firefoot mention it? She mentioned all three other names...

This may have been an oversight. I was not ignoring it; I did mention her suspicion (I may have put it as confusion, since that seems to me more of what it is) in my analysis in post 80 (I think. It's at the bottom of the page - the first lengthy analysis that I did). I didn't do it on purpose - many of you probably won't believe that, though...

And Firefoot admitted that her contradictory posts were deliberate. Why would a villager use deceitfulness, even to start discussion?

Deceitfulness? I do not think I was being deceitful. I was putting options out there to discuss. Here are the posts in question:

Strategies can be discussed, of course, but it seems to me that there really aren't any good strategies for catching wolves, not this early on. The best way seems to be for everyone to speak up frequently, contribute thoughts, and then everyone vote for the one who seems most wolvish to them, leaving us with a clean voting record for future reference. Hardly a high-tech plan, but it seems to be the one that would work the best. Other people may propose them, of course, and even if they are not used, they will at least give us something to talk about on this first day when evidence seems so slim.

This is my "this is what I think should be done" post.

A day already fated to be rather unproductive is growing more and more so by everyone's silence... I sure hope posting does pick up here soon or when I vote in the morning it may just be for someone who hasn't posted because at this rate it's going to have to be random anyway because no one really seems to be posting.

And if that's going to be the way it is, voting will undoubtedly be all spread out and of little use anyway. I'd like to suggest limiting the voting in some way, except that seems likely to narrow our chances of bagging a wolf. But... what if we were to just pick four random people off the list and say "vote for one of them" - just to narrow our results?

If nothing else, I'd like to generate a bit of discussion here, see where it leads. Thoughts?

Note the change in tone: "what if we did this?" I was not trying to imply that I thought this was the way we should go. I was getting pretty desperate and wanted to try and put some material out there to discuss.

Simply having everyone vote for the last contributor would not be the best plan, I do not think. For one thing, it creates an automatic bandwagon and Day 2 becomes almost as useless as Day 1, because if s/he is innocent, both wolves and innocents will have voted for him/her and there will be no discrimination. The wolves can hide easily in this scenario. The same works if s/he is a wolf. I would much rather see spread out votes than everyone voting for the same person. Additionally, some people will have to vote much earlier than others, so the last person who contributes may not have contributed by the time the first person votes.

You'll note that I have gone back to my original strategy.

I've already explained this, though.

In defending Roa, she attacked the seer, after he admitted his seerhood. Frankly I think that was a mistake on Firefoot's part.

No, I didn't. Go look: bottom of page 6-top of page 7.

I would ask you all that when you make accusations against people you use quotes from their posts to back up what you're saying. This has happened a lot this game, where people say things even though they're not actually correct. Jenny's suspicion of me seems to have been primarily knee-jerk. She only had two real pieces of evidence against me, and one of those I have already explained.

Moving on.

Yesterday's voting:

Jenny – 3 (Elu 1, Firefoot 3, Eonwe 6)
Gandalf – 2 (Gandalf 2, Mithalwen 7)
Firefoot – 2 (Valier 4, Jenny 5)

Valier is thoroughly confusing me. I had thought her innocent because of her continued tiff with Roa, but now I'm wondering if that might not be so. This flip-flop confuses me a little:

I ve read through Firefoots posts and they all make sense to me ...My suspision of her is weakening.

...about half an hour later, after Jenny posted her suspicions of me...

them woves are crafty I say! Firefoot has made me suspisious for awhile but I was having a hard time putting my finger on why. Some thing has been screaming at me saying, "she wants you to trust her" Her posts almost sound too reasonable sometimes and in the back of my brain it's telling me She's posting what we want to hear.

Right...

Mithalwen I would like to believe is innocent, but I'm still wavering. I'm willing to trust her explanation of why she did not vote, and it seems true enough to form. Also, if she was a wolf, her no-vote would be even more strange than it already seems - the vote was looking to be close, and one of the candidates was a wolf - would not a fellow wolf be much more concerned over the outcome of the vote? I'm not sure about her vote for Gandalf, though at that point the vote was sealed anyway. As an innocent she may have just been going the safest way for the one she thought most guilty-seeming, but as a wolf she may have recognized that both Jenny and I were innocent and chose not to vote for either of us. (I know, I know, you don't have any proof except my word that I'm innocent.) Over all, I'm still thinking that Mith is probably innocent.

Gandalf I am just not sure about. I think my mistake in considering him is that I have assumed that most people who sign up actually care about this game. I have assumed that he may be innocent because a wolf would care more about the vote, that it would matter more as they would want to manipulate it. I don't think that he does care. Which doesn't tell us anything more except that he might be either innocent or wolf but we have no way of telling. Since we do have two wolves left, I do not think that lynching him is our best bet. It is a fifty-fifty chance at best.

Elu, unfortunately like me, had to vote early yesterday, so not as much can be gleaned from his vote as some of the others. With the situation where it is, he is rather in the middle of the sea-saw - I'd like to say he is innocent but there just aren't enough people left for me to clear him.

So in order of suspicion:
Valier
Gandalf??
Elu
Mithalwen