Well, there has been a lot to review and I can do no better than give my thoughts on each villager as I have been reading through today’s contributions.
Farael: I am not sure what to make of his obsession with Aiwendil. I thought that his case yesterday was weak and based largely on a mischaracterization of what Aiwendil had said. But he brings up some stronger points today. Aiwendil is indeed looking “suspiciously reasonable”. Farael comes across to me as either an innocent behaving like a dog with a bone (albeit possibly a valid bone) or a Wolf who has chosen to be single-minded and thereby avoid suspicion. Difficult to tell which and, since he has only really focused on Aiwendil, there is not much else to go on.
Mormegil: Seemed unusually restrained yesterday, but has been more reassuringly vocal today (or earlier today, at least). I am wary of his vote for Gil though, as Gil was an easy target for a Wolf yesterday and an easy “mistake” to explain away today. Although it by no means sealed Gil’s fate, his was the vote that promoted Gil as a candidate for the noose. As for today, he made a very strong accusation of littlemanpoet at the outset, and then backed off quite considerably when lmp responded (#148). Was this because he saw the suspicion of lmp mounting and was concerned about being implicated in the lynching of a useful innocent? That of course depends on whether lmp is innocent, and I am most certainly not convinced that he is. Quite the contrary.
Aiwendil: I remain concerned over his involvement in the Seer talk yesterday. His other contributions, yesterday and today, had come across to me as sensible and helpful. But Farael has made some valid points about him seemingly taking few risks and keeping his options open. Still keeping a close eye on him.
Glirdan: I haven’t seen anything to alter my assessment that his first day Gil vote was an unlikely vote for a Wolf. As was his vote for Lhuna, a possible candidate for lynching today. Not much else to go on, as he only really dealt with Lhuna in his contributions today. Which might, I suppose, be regarded as suspicious in itself.
Formendacil: Well, I am prepared to buy his explanation of his vote for Boro for now. It looks to have been a sensible vote at the time he voted. Not much else to go on, really.
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant: Still talking sense. Which still makes me wary of her.
Nilpaurion Felagund: Still innocent. Probably.
Lhunardawen: I suspected her enough to vote for her yesterday because of her vote for Glirdan, an easy target, and her reaction to his suggestion to lynch the quiet ones. She is implicated by Holby’s death. Holby suspected her, but not strongly enough to mark out a clear trail of blood from Holby’s corpse to her door. And she seems overly defensive about her time-zone malady, the problems of which I think we all know and understand by now. Her vote for lmp went along with the general feeling about him at the time, but it could be a risky vote if he is lynched and turns out innocent. Still, I already have her down for a bold Wolf if she is one. Still looking very suspicious to me.
Eomer of the Rohirrim: Not really sure what to make of Eomer. He has been present, but I don’t really get much of a sense about him from what he has said. Which, as spawn has said, might be regarded as suspicious. Not enough to draw any firm conclusions on yet, but I would prefer to see more substance from him.
Littlemanpoet: Still suspicious for his contributions to the strategy discussion yesterday (particular the Seer talk, which
was bad, elempi, as it diverted us from our proper focus – finding Wolves) and for his aggressive pursuit of Boro. Has had a good rant today and comes across as overly defensive, but that’s standard practice for him. Then again, that’s the way I would expect him to behave if he is a Wolf. One thing strikes me, though. If, as you say, you are consciously trying to act slightly suspicious, why act so prickly about being suspected? Still high on my suspect list.
Kath: I don't think that we’ve heard from her today. Her vote for Gil, putting him ahead of the others on two votes, is suspicious and could have been an attempt to save a fellow Wolf (Lhuna perhaps). My initial reaction was to view her silence as suspicious but I am not so sure on second thoughts, as staying quiet in this village is akin to drawing attention to oneself.
Garin: Problem with Garin is that he always looks suspicious and always places suspicious votes. But he seems a bit “all over the place” to me today. Declaring that only a fool would vote to lynch him, yet acting suspiciously all the same. Suggesting that the False Seer should give up dreaming. Speculating that a Wolf might try to declare as the False Seer, which would surely be suicide for a Wolf. It doesn’t add up. But our baker seems to me to be an intelligent fellow so, if he is a Wolf, his mind isn’t on the job. I somehow doubt that he is, though.
Anguirel: Calm, cool and collected. Which is precisely how I would expect a Wolf to behave. My suspicions of him are growing, but it’s just a “gut feeling” at the moment, so not enough to warrant a vote. He did explain his vote for Boro well, but he has been keeping the pressure on Boro today (while not voting for him, I notice), and I am inclined to think Boro innocent.
Celuien: Her attempt to deflect morm’s random accusation yesterday still strikes me as suspicious. Looking back, I see that her involvement in the Seer talk was not as great as I had recalled. But the speculation on whether a Wolf might impersonate a Seer looks awfully like the way a Wolf might think, and not to catch a Wolf either. And totally unnecessary, as it was a hypothetical situation. Has kept active today without really saying much that is helpful. Not sure what to make of her vote for Garin, though. Could be risky, if he’s innocent (and I am inclined to think that he is). Nevertheless, she’s still looking suspicious in my eyes.
Tar-Ancalime: The fact that Holby voted for her yesterday and then died overnight still inclines me to view tar as innocent. She has explained her switch from her suspicion of dancing spawn, although the random vote still looks strange. So, not completely in the clear, but I’m viewing her as innocent for now.
Boromir88: The main thing that concerned me about Boro was his claim that he had no choice but to vote for Gil. However, I have a feeling that he was telling the truth when he said that he thought a double lynching was on the cards. Other than that, he seems to have talked good sense today. I am inclined to trust him, for now.
To summarise:
Main suspects: mormegil, Lhunardawen, littlemanpoet, Celuin.
Although, if lmp’s a Wolf, I doubt that mormegil or Lhuna are. And vice versa.
Making me nervous: Farael, Aiwendil, Anguirel
Just don’t know: Formendacil, Eomer, Kath, spawn
Probably innocent: Glirdan, Nilp, Garin, tar, Boro
And now I must cast my vote. The thing is, if lmp’s a Wolf, I will be feeling a lot more comfortable about mormegil and Lhuna, two of my other main suspects. On the other hand, if he’s innocent, then they are looking distinctly Wolfish.
So it seems to me that finding out one way or the other will be most instructive. Sorry if that sounds callous, but there you have it.
++ LITTLEMANPOET