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Originally Posted by mormegil
So I vote for those I put forward as suspicious...well I must be a wolf
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No. I said that it was understandable that your suspicions coincide with the most suspicious-looking villagers, but that your knack of picking the villager most likely to be lynched made me uneasy. Now, I tend to view villagers who make strong accusations of those looking most suspicious as likely innocents, on the basis that it is risky for a Wolf to be caught instigating or riding in a bandwagon that ends in an innocent being lynched. But perhaps you are banking on others thinking the same way. It’s probably not enough to warrant a vote today, I’ll grant you, but I’ll be keeping an eye on you.
My thoughts on everyone else.
Farael: I really don’t get Farael’s approach. He goes all out for Aiwendil, then decides that it might be worth lynching lmp as a test of Aiwendil’s guilt. He speculated that, if lmp was proved to be a Wolf, then that would suggest that Aiwendil was one too. Yet, when lmp is proved innocent, he still believes Aiwendil to be a Wolf. I don’t understand that at all. It is looking increasingly to me like Farael is a Wolf who has based his strategy on focusing on just a small group of innocents, possibly those whom the Wolves regard as dangerous.
Mormegil: My thoughts on mormegil are set out above. I don’t think the case for him being a Wolf is strong enough to vote for him – yet. But, if he keeps featuring so strongly in these moves against suspicious looking villagers who turn out to be innocent, I will start looking very closely at him.
Aiwendil: As I have said, I really don’t understand Farael’s case against Aiwendil. I certainly cannot see how lmp’s innocence implicates him as a Wolf. He seems to me to have been thoughtful and helpful throughout. Not so much “flip-flopping” as carefully weighing up the evidence. Perhaps those who suspect him would care to explain the reasoning for their suspicions a little more clearly, because I can see very little that suggests that he is a Wolf.
Glirdan: I said yesterday that I would like to hear more from him and that remains the case. His quietness and the seemingly non-committal nature of the contributions that he has made, however, is making him look increasingly suspicious. I am no longer prepared to regard him as a probable innocent.
Formendacil: I believe his claim to be the False Seer. It’s possible that he is a Wolf trying to pull the wool over our eyes and banking on the fact that we will view any subsequent False Seer claim as an obvious Wolfish move. But, as he was under no particular danger, I doubt that he would have taken the risk of making this claim, if a Wolf.
Nilpaurion Felagund: He has contributed more today, but little more than a vote for Eomer and a comment that Boro would look bad if Eomer turns out to be a Wolf. I like to think that I can still trust him, though.
Eomer of the Rohirrim: For me, the question of whether Eomer is a Wolf depends upon whether spawn’s death was a Wolfish attempt to frame him or a bold Wolfish move. I have reviewed his posts again and can see little more to go on other than that which has already been noted (by spawn and me, among others). His pattern of behaviour could go either way for me. Certainly, I would have expected a Wolfish Eomer to have been more bold in his daytime behaviour, but equally I would expect a Wolfish Eomer to be bold enough to kill spawn. Definitely one of my main suspects, though.
Kath: Nothing from her today, so nothing to add to my thoughts expressed earlier today. It is notable that she made a few lengthy contributions after her quietness had been noted, and that they comprised a villager by villager analysis of the first three days, rather than a more helpful analysis of patterns of behaviour. Still looking suspicious to me.
Celuien: One of my prime suspects from the first few days, although that was largely based on her attempt to divert suspicion on Day 1, following morm’s random accusation of her. Has managed to avoid much suspicion so far and, if non-committal posts and a tendency to express no strong suspicions are to be taken as a sign of Wolfishness, then she fits the pattern.
Tar-Ancalime: Holby’s vote for tar followed by her death has diverted my gaze from her for too long. I am increasingly coming round to the view that, whether Holby dreamed of her or not, a Wolfish tar thought that she might be the Seer on the basis of that vote and killed her for it. It’s either that or the Wolves got very lucky. That Day 1 vote for Eomer also still looks suspicious to me. If Eomer is a Wolf, then it could have been a safe Wolf-on-Wolf vote. And, even if not, then it still looks like a safe vote for a Wolf at that time. Looking increasingly suspicious to me.
Boromir88: Boro, on the other hand, looks increasingly innocent to me as time wears on. He seems genuine in his attempts to find the Wolves. He has been neither non-committal, expressing strong suspicions at times, nor hasty, always giving good reasoning for his thoughts. Sometimes, when one thinks someone is innocent, one has to stick to that belief (in the absence of evidence to the contrary), no matter the risk of ending up looking extremely foolish. And I’m sticking to my belief that Boro is most likely innocent.
As usual, a summary of where this gets me:
Main suspects: Farael, Eomer, Kath, tar-ancalime
Making me nervous: mormegil, Celuin
Just don’t know: Glirdan
Probably innocent: Aiwendil, Nilp, Boro
Almost certainly innocent: Formendacil
I have time before I cast my vote but, unless there are any major developments, it is likely to go to one of my current main suspects.