[tar-ancalime]

Good heavens! My random vote from Day 1 has generated more discussion than any other vote in this game.

I'm inclined to put the people who are still alive into two groups: the loud and the quiet.

Quiet:

Glirdan
Formendacil
Kath
Celuien
Nilpaurion Felagund

Loud:

Saucepan Man
mormegil
Boromir88
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Farael
Aiwendil
tar-ancalime

Both groups look suspicious to me. Could it be I'm getting a little paranoid? I'll look at the quiet villagers first.

I believe Formendacil when he says he's the Fool. In general when someone comes out as Gifted (or...differently abled, or whatever you'd call the Fool) I feel it's best to behave as though it's true--if it's not, the truth will out eventually and it generally doesn't take long. In this case I really do believe him, and as I am grasping at straws to find suspects, one known innocent makes things that much easier.

Glirdan is making me very nervous with his limited participation. Very nervous. As I mentioned earlier today, it's past time for us to stop giving the silent ones the "benefit of the doubt."

Kath has contributed, but as others have noted it's only been after her quietness was remarked upon. However, such a quick turnabout is not too subtle--surely wolf-Kath would know better than to shift gears like that. I'm inclined to think her innocent.

I"m not sure what to make of Celuien. Although she has contributed, she's left almost no impression on me. This is why I"ve put her in the "quiet" camp.

I'm thinking of Nilpaurion Felagund in the same way as Glirdan. I understand he's had some reasons to be away from the game, but that doesn't preclude his being a wolf and we've got no real reason to believe he's not. That anagram, while it seems to have persuaded Saucepan Man, is no guarantee. It could be a filthy fanged lie.

So, among the quiet folk, I'd suspect Glirdan and Nilpaurion. I'm on the fence about Celuien, and I think Kath and Formendacil are likely to be innocent.

Now, for the talkers.

This is both easier (more to go on) and more difficult (more to go on).

Farael's attacks on Aiwendil are getting ridiculous. Everything points back to Aiwendil, does it? lmp-wolf = Aiwendil-wolf. lmp-innocent = Aiwendil-wolf. Eomer is a wolf, and so is Aiwendil. It's a strange strategy, and it makes me nervous.

Aiwendil, Boromir88, The Saucepan Man, and (of course) mormegil have all put me on their suspect lists today. Being a megalomaniac, I'd like to consider them primarily through this lens. (Actually it's because it's the only point on which I'm sure they're all wrong--seems like an instructive exercise.)

Aiwendil voted for me on Day 1. He's the only one of the four to have done so, and I think his suspicions of me are genuine, if misguided. That dratted Holby vote! She did not dream of me.

mormegil puts together an exhaustive "case" against me, which consists mostly of rehashing everything I've said. It's impressive in its sheer magnitude, but it doesn't seem to say much. Then again, I know it's not true.

Boromir88, on the other hand, has never voiced a concrete suspicion of me. I show up on his suspect lists regularly. Several times he has posted to the effect that I'm not getting enough attention. His suspicions of me seem to be based largely on his idea that others are not suspecting me enough. He has voiced this opinion on more than one day, in more than one circumstance. He has never voted for me. Confusing? Yeah. Sounds to me like he's trying to get something going without getting his hands dirty.

The Saucepan Man says he's interested in mormegil's case against me. He particularly notes my failure to vote for Garin last night (and yes, mormegil, it was very late at night). I've accepted that this was a mistake; I only hope it doesn't get me lynched.

Eomer of the Rohirrim is playing his own game. He's not allied with anyone; the only person he was entangled with was spawn, and we've already seen what kind of circular logic comes from pondering that connection.

Among this group I think The Saucepan Man, Aiwendil, and mormegil are as likely innocent as not (that's as strong an endorsement as I'm willing to give). I'm not sure about Eomer at all. And Farael and Boromir are looking quite suspicious to me.

So where does that leave me?

Off the hook for now:

Formendacil
Kath
The Saucepan Man
Aiwendil
mormegil

Not sure:

Celuien
Eomer

Suspicious:

Glirdan
Nilpaurion Felagund
Boromir88
Farael

++Boromir88